All Academic, Inc. Research Logo

Info/CitationFAQResearchAll Academic Inc.
Document

Bargaining Over Power: When Do Rapid Shifts in Power Lead to War?
Unformatted Document Text:  greater economic and military potential. 42 With hindsight, we know of course that the treaty was a failure, and even an underlying cause for the outbreak of World War II. Ultimately, however, what made war possible in 1939 was the rearmament of Germany in the 1930s and the implicit acquiescence by at least Britain, who seemed more concerned about the French fleet than the German one (Coutau-B´egarie 1995). The problem, then, is that the protagonists failed to negotiate over the distribution of capabilities in a way that would maintain Germany in check: the deeper cause of war is not the difference in rates of growth, but the inability of the parties to negotiate over it. 9.3 Avoiding Preventive Wars Preventive wars are perhaps the purest case of conflicts caused by commitment problems. They are caused by deeper and slower changes in relative power. Their goal is “to avoid a war waged later under worse conditions, or to avoid being later compelled to bargain from weakness” (Van Evera 1999). We find many situations in history where states have negotiated to avoid rapid shifts in power. Limitations on naval armaments, for example, address concerns about shifts in power over longer periods than the simple withdrawal of troops or offensive weapons mentioned above: a fleet takes time and is costly to build, and personnel need intensive training that cannot be improvised over a short period of time. 43 Such agreements are instances of situations in which states are trying to reduce deeper shifts in power by limiting growth in naval armaments. In the eighteenth century, for example, Choiseul— 42 It was important for France to reduce the roots of German economic power—and hence indirectly toensure that reconstruction of a significant army be impossible. This was accomplished by a broadrange of measures, including: the placement of the Saar region’s coal fields under French control for15 years; the prohibition of the annexation of Austria, Czechoslovakia, Poland or Dantzig; and finallyby the cessation of Silesia to Poland. These concessions significantly reduced the potential economicpower of the country. Other measures were also agreed upon to limit the country’s military moredirectly: the Rhineland was to be demilitarized in order to create a buffer zone; troops could not exceedone hundred thousand and conscription was banned; the manufacture of weapons, artillery, tanks andmilitary aircraft was prohibited; naval forces were limited to 15,000 men, 6 battleships and 6 cruisers,12 destroyers and 12 torpedo boats. 43 See Coutau-B´ egarie (1995) for a thorough history of naval disarmament 24

Authors: Chadefaux, Thomas.
first   previous   Page 26 of 45   next   last



background image
greater economic and military potential.
42
With hindsight, we know of course that the
treaty was a failure, and even an underlying cause for the outbreak of World War II.
Ultimately, however, what made war possible in 1939 was the rearmament of Germany in
the 1930s and the implicit acquiescence by at least Britain, who seemed more concerned
about the French fleet than the German one (Coutau-B´egarie 1995). The problem, then,
is that the protagonists failed to negotiate over the distribution of capabilities in a way
that would maintain Germany in check: the deeper cause of war is not the difference in
rates of growth, but the inability of the parties to negotiate over it.
9.3
Avoiding Preventive Wars
Preventive wars are perhaps the purest case of conflicts caused by commitment problems.
They are caused by deeper and slower changes in relative power. Their goal is “to avoid
a war waged later under worse conditions, or to avoid being later compelled to bargain
from weakness” (Van Evera 1999).
We find many situations in history where states have negotiated to avoid rapid shifts
in power. Limitations on naval armaments, for example, address concerns about shifts
in power over longer periods than the simple withdrawal of troops or offensive weapons
mentioned above: a fleet takes time and is costly to build, and personnel need intensive
training that cannot be improvised over a short period of time.
43
Such agreements are
instances of situations in which states are trying to reduce deeper shifts in power by
limiting growth in naval armaments. In the eighteenth century, for example, Choiseul—
42
It was important for France to reduce the roots of German economic power—and hence indirectly to
ensure that reconstruction of a significant army be impossible. This was accomplished by a broad
range of measures, including: the placement of the Saar region’s coal fields under French control for
15 years; the prohibition of the annexation of Austria, Czechoslovakia, Poland or Dantzig; and finally
by the cessation of Silesia to Poland. These concessions significantly reduced the potential economic
power of the country. Other measures were also agreed upon to limit the country’s military more
directly: the Rhineland was to be demilitarized in order to create a buffer zone; troops could not exceed
one hundred thousand and conscription was banned; the manufacture of weapons, artillery, tanks and
military aircraft was prohibited; naval forces were limited to 15,000 men, 6 battleships and 6 cruisers,
12 destroyers and 12 torpedo boats.
43
See Coutau-B´
egarie (1995) for a thorough history of naval disarmament
24


Convention
All Academic Convention makes running your annual conference simple and cost effective. It is your online solution for abstract management, peer review, and scheduling for your annual meeting or convention.
Submission - Custom fields, multiple submission types, tracks, audio visual, multiple upload formats, automatic conversion to pdf.
Review - Peer Review, Bulk reviewer assignment, bulk emails, ranking, z-score statistics, and multiple worksheets!
Reports - Many standard and custom reports generated while you wait. Print programs with participant indexes, event grids, and more!
Scheduling - Flexible and convenient grid scheduling within rooms and buildings. Conflict checking and advanced filtering.
Communication - Bulk email tools to help your administrators send reminders and responses. Use form letters, a message center, and much more!
Management - Search tools, duplicate people management, editing tools, submission transfers, many tools to manage a variety of conference management headaches!
Click here for more information.

first   previous   Page 26 of 45   next   last

©2012 All Academic, Inc.