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Ideas, Analogical Reasoning and International Trade Attitudes: Evidence from a Survey Experiment
Unformatted Document Text:  underlying them is the same. Point estimates indicate that men who spent 45 seconds or more on the Tiger Woods screen were over 20 percentage points more likely to favor trade, while men of “low” cognitive ability exhibited no such association. Again, these estimates must be interpreted with care, as they are not strictly treatment effects. Women did not appear to exhibit any such association regardless of whether they were of “high” or “low” cognitive ability. There is some indication that the Bob Vila analogy had an effect on women, though it seems restricted to women of “low” cognitive ability (contrary to what expects from a complex analogy), and the effect appears less consistent than the Tiger Woods effect among men. 31 Cell sizes are also quite small in all of these estimates (see Table F in Appendix 1). Taken at face value, however, these different associations could arise from a range of factors. Most obviously, the Tiger Woods analogy may hold less appeal for women than it does for men. The Bob Vila analogy was meant to act as an alternative with more appeal to women, but it does not appear to have had much success. 32 A more general possibility is that the types of arguments that appeal to men and women simply differ, not least because the considerations that enter into their respective trade attitudes in the first place may differ as well. In sum, it appears that the particulars of these analogies matter for their persuasiveness (indicated here by the associations between trade attitudes and the treatments among those who spent significant time reading them), even when the underlying structure is the same. 31 Additionally, the effect of the Bob Vila on all respondents with MCRT scores greater than is periodically negative, large and significant. This too is an inconsistent effect, but also highlights just how different the reactions to two similar analogies can be. 32 The Bob Vila analogy shows a statistically significant association with women who scored 0 in Table E, 20

Authors: David, Lynch.
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underlying them is the same. Point estimates indicate that men who spent 45 seconds or
more on the Tiger Woods screen were over 20 percentage points more likely to favor
trade, while men of “low” cognitive ability exhibited no such association. Again, these
estimates must be interpreted with care, as they are not strictly treatment effects. Women
did not appear to exhibit any such association regardless of whether they were of “high”
or “low” cognitive ability. There is some indication that the Bob Vila analogy had an
effect on women, though it seems restricted to women of “low” cognitive ability
(contrary to what expects from a complex analogy), and the effect appears less consistent
than the Tiger Woods effect among men.
Cell sizes are also quite small in all of these
estimates (see Table F in Appendix 1).
Taken at face value, however, these different associations could arise from a range of
factors. Most obviously, the Tiger Woods analogy may hold less appeal for women than
it does for men. The Bob Vila analogy was meant to act as an alternative with more
appeal to women, but it does not appear to have had much success.
A more general
possibility is that the types of arguments that appeal to men and women simply differ, not
least because the considerations that enter into their respective trade attitudes in the first
place may differ as well. In sum, it appears that the particulars of these analogies matter
for their persuasiveness (indicated here by the associations between trade attitudes and
the treatments among those who spent significant time reading them), even when the
underlying structure is the same.
31
Additionally, the effect of the Bob Vila on all respondents with MCRT scores greater than is periodically
negative, large and significant. This too is an inconsistent effect, but also highlights just how different the
reactions to two similar analogies can be.
32
The Bob Vila analogy shows a statistically significant association with women who scored 0 in Table E,
20


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