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Ideas, Analogical Reasoning and International Trade Attitudes: Evidence from a Survey Experiment
Unformatted Document Text:  COEFFICIENT 5 sec. 30 sec. 45 sec. 60 sec. 5 sec. 30 sec. 45 sec. 60 sec. 5 sec. 30 sec. 45 sec. 60 sec. or more or more or more or more or more or more or more or more or more or more or more or more female -0.03 -0.03 -0.06 -0.04 (0.03) (0.04) (0.04) (0.05) mcrt1 -0.08* -0.07 -0.06 -0.03 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.04 -0.19** -0.15** -0.14* -0.10 (0.04) (0.05) (0.05) (0.06) (0.06) (0.07) (0.07) (0.08) (0.05) (0.06) (0.06) (0.08) mcrt2 -0.09+ -0.09 -0.08 -0.03 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.10 -0.25** -0.24** -0.24** -0.19* (0.05) (0.05) (0.06) (0.07) (0.07) (0.07) (0.08) (0.09) (0.07) (0.07) (0.08) (0.09) mcrt3 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.12 0.20** 0.19** 0.22** 0.26** -0.07 -0.03 -0.06 -0.06 (0.05) (0.06) (0.06) (0.07) (0.07) (0.07) (0.081) (0.09) (0.08) (0.09) (0.10) (0.11) less than high school 0.08 0.05 0.09 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.08 0.14 0.11 0.07 0.09 -0.01 (0.07) (0.07) (0.07) (0.08) (0.10) (0.10) (0.11) (0.12) (0.09) (0.09) (0.10) (0.11) some college -0.01 0.00 0.02 0.02 -0.07 -0.07 -0.04 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.06 0.01 (0.04) (0.05) (0.05) (0.06) (0.06) (0.07) (0.07) (0.08) (0.06) (0.07) (0.08) (0.08) bachelor's degree 0.04 0.03 0.07 0.03 -0.03 -0.02 0.02 0.02 0.08 0.05 0.11 0.07 (0.05) (0.05) (0.06) (0.07) (0.07) (0.07) (0.08) (0.09) (0.07) (0.08) (0.08) (0.09) graduate degree 0.16** 0.18** 0.20** 0.17* 0.06 0.07 0.03 0.00 0.26** 0.31** 0.36** 0.31** (0.06) (0.059) (0.07) (0.08) (0.08) (0.08) (0.09) (0.11) (0.08) (0.08) (0.09) (0.10) union (binary) -0.11* -0.11* -0.11+ -0.09 -0.13* -0.11 -0.15+ -0.14 -0.05 -0.10 -0.04 0.00 (0.05) (0.05) (0.060) (0.07) (0.06) (0.07) (0.08) (0.09) (0.09) (0.08) (0.10) (0.12) imports affect job security (binary) -0.14** -0.13** -0.15** -0.14** -0.22** -0.22** -0.25** -0.23** -0.06 -0.03 -0.05 -0.03 (0.04) (0.04) (0.041) (0.05) (0.05) (0.05) (0.05) (0.06) (0.05) (0.06) (0.06) (0.07) war 0.01 -0.03 -0.01 0.00 0.05 -0.01 0.03 -0.01 -0.03 -0.06 -0.06 -0.02 (0.05) (0.05) (0.06) (0.07) (0.07) (0.07) (0.08) (0.09) (0.06) (0.07) (0.08) (0.09) woods 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.10 0.15* 0.15* -0.03 -0.03 -0.05 -0.08 (0.05) (0.05) (0.05) (0.06) (0.06) (0.07) (0.07) (0.08) (0.06) (0.06) (0.07) (0.08) vila 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.07 -0.05 -0.05 -0.06 -0.05 0.07 0.07 0.05 0.17+ (0.05) (0.05) (0.06) (0.07) (0.07) (0.07) (0.08) (0.09) (0.07) (0.07) (0.08) (0.10) Observations 1410 1209 980 774 711 613 499 393 699 596 481 381 Pseudo R 2 0.0397 0.0396 0.0488 0.0435 0.0756 0.0794 0.1014 0.0993 0.0514 0.0498 0.0587 0.0586 Joint significance Prob > χ2 0.0000 0.0002 0.0006 0.0224 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0014 0.0020 0.0164 0.0219 0.1341 Notes: Dependent variable = 1 if respondent opposes policies that limit imports from other countries and 0 if respondent favors policies that limit imports from other countries.Probit estimations: marginal effects (δF/δx ) are show with robust standard errors in parentheses. Models also include controls for age, risk aversion, and living in metropolitan area.+p < 0.10; *p < 0.05; **p < 0.01. ALL RESPONDENTS MEN WOMEN TABLE B: Benchmark Probit Estimates of Atttitudes Toward Trade (Import Limits) Respondents Familiar with Source of Analogy Where Applicable (Tiger Woods, Bob Vila) Dependent Variable: protradebinary 28

Authors: David, Lynch.
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COEFFICIENT
5 sec.
30 sec.
45 sec.
60 sec.
5 sec.
30 sec.
45 sec.
60 sec.
5 sec.
30 sec.
45 sec.
60 sec.
or more
or more
or more
or more
or more
or more
or more
or more
or more
or more
or more
or more
female
-0.03
-0.03
-0.06
-0.04
(0.03)
(0.04)
(0.04)
(0.05)
mcrt1
-0.08*
-0.07
-0.06
-0.03
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.04
-0.19**
-0.15**
-0.14*
-0.10
(0.04)
(0.05)
(0.05)
(0.06)
(0.06)
(0.07)
(0.07)
(0.08)
(0.05)
(0.06)
(0.06)
(0.08)
mcrt2
-0.09+
-0.09
-0.08
-0.03
0.06
0.05
0.06
0.10
-0.25**
-0.24**
-0.24**
-0.19*
(0.05)
(0.05)
(0.06)
(0.07)
(0.07)
(0.07)
(0.08)
(0.09)
(0.07)
(0.07)
(0.08)
(0.09)
mcrt3
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.12
0.20**
0.19**
0.22**
0.26**
-0.07
-0.03
-0.06
-0.06
(0.05)
(0.06)
(0.06)
(0.07)
(0.07)
(0.07)
(0.081)
(0.09)
(0.08)
(0.09)
(0.10)
(0.11)
less than high school
0.08
0.05
0.09
0.05
0.02
0.00
0.08
0.14
0.11
0.07
0.09
-0.01
(0.07)
(0.07)
(0.07)
(0.08)
(0.10)
(0.10)
(0.11)
(0.12)
(0.09)
(0.09)
(0.10)
(0.11)
some college
-0.01
0.00
0.02
0.02
-0.07
-0.07
-0.04
0.02
0.02
0.05
0.06
0.01
(0.04)
(0.05)
(0.05)
(0.06)
(0.06)
(0.07)
(0.07)
(0.08)
(0.06)
(0.07)
(0.08)
(0.08)
bachelor's degree
0.04
0.03
0.07
0.03
-0.03
-0.02
0.02
0.02
0.08
0.05
0.11
0.07
(0.05)
(0.05)
(0.06)
(0.07)
(0.07)
(0.07)
(0.08)
(0.09)
(0.07)
(0.08)
(0.08)
(0.09)
graduate degree
0.16**
0.18**
0.20**
0.17*
0.06
0.07
0.03
0.00
0.26**
0.31**
0.36**
0.31**
(0.06)
(0.059)
(0.07)
(0.08)
(0.08)
(0.08)
(0.09)
(0.11)
(0.08)
(0.08)
(0.09)
(0.10)
union (binary)
-0.11*
-0.11*
-0.11+
-0.09
-0.13*
-0.11
-0.15+
-0.14
-0.05
-0.10
-0.04
0.00
(0.05)
(0.05)
(0.060)
(0.07)
(0.06)
(0.07)
(0.08)
(0.09)
(0.09)
(0.08)
(0.10)
(0.12)
imports affect job security (binary)
-0.14**
-0.13**
-0.15**
-0.14**
-0.22**
-0.22**
-0.25**
-0.23**
-0.06
-0.03
-0.05
-0.03
(0.04)
(0.04)
(0.041)
(0.05)
(0.05)
(0.05)
(0.05)
(0.06)
(0.05)
(0.06)
(0.06)
(0.07)
war
0.01
-0.03
-0.01
0.00
0.05
-0.01
0.03
-0.01
-0.03
-0.06
-0.06
-0.02
(0.05)
(0.05)
(0.06)
(0.07)
(0.07)
(0.07)
(0.08)
(0.09)
(0.06)
(0.07)
(0.08)
(0.09)
woods
0.03
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.10
0.15*
0.15*
-0.03
-0.03
-0.05
-0.08
(0.05)
(0.05)
(0.05)
(0.06)
(0.06)
(0.07)
(0.07)
(0.08)
(0.06)
(0.06)
(0.07)
(0.08)
vila
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.07
-0.05
-0.05
-0.06
-0.05
0.07
0.07
0.05
0.17+
(0.05)
(0.05)
(0.06)
(0.07)
(0.07)
(0.07)
(0.08)
(0.09)
(0.07)
(0.07)
(0.08)
(0.10)
Observations
1410
1209
980
774
711
613
499
393
699
596
481
381
Pseudo R
2
0.0397
0.0396
0.0488
0.0435
0.0756
0.0794
0.1014
0.0993
0.0514
0.0498
0.0587
0.0586
Joint significance Prob > χ2
0.0000
0.0002
0.0006 0.0224
0.0000
0.0001
0.0002
0.0014
0.0020
0.0164
0.0219
0.1341
Notes: Dependent variable = 1 if respondent opposes policies that limit imports from other countries and 0 if respondent favors policies that limit imports from other countries.
Probit estimations: marginal effects (δF/δx ) are show with robust standard errors in parentheses. Models also include controls for age, risk aversion, and living in metropolitan area.
+p < 0.10; *p < 0.05; **p < 0.01.
ALL RESPONDENTS
MEN
WOMEN
TABLE B: Benchmark Probit Estimates of Atttitudes Toward Trade (Import Limits)
Respondents Familiar with Source of Analogy Where Applicable (Tiger Woods, Bob Vila)
Dependent Variable: protradebinary
28


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