13

1996). I use International Futures (Ifs) software to predict all variables for China and the

U.S. for the time period of 2003-2100, and forecast the future power transition between

the U.S. and China.

1

In addition, all variables have been calculated by the ADL model of

long term effects.

2

Based on the above analysis, we can get the peaceful/conflictual

power transition function as the following:

μ

β

β

β

β

α

+

+

+

−

+

=

*PS*

*SO*

*EI*

*EI*

*S*

*RP*

*CP*

4

3

3

2

1

)

)(

(

)

(

Where CP is conflictual or peaceful transition; RP represents relative power; EI

stands for economic interdependence; SO means speed of overtake; PS refers to political

stability; S represents satisfaction to the status quo; while β

*i*

s are parameter estimates and

μ is the stochastic error term. The empirical tests employ a pooled cross sectional time

series analysis to estimate the relationships. The unit increase in economic

interdependence does not actually change the probability of conflictual/peaceful

transition equally, and would not capture the curvature of interaction. The cubing term of

economic interdependence increases the asymmetrical influence at high and low level

than squaring the term, which helps us to identify the threshold of economic

interdependence. That is, we can easily identify the peak in a sharp inverse “U” than in a

flatter peak inverse “U”. The interaction of satisfaction and economic interdependence

specifies that if a country is dissatisfied with status quo and has less economic linkage

with other countries, it is very likely that power transition between this country and the

1

IFs is a simulation modeling software used for global projections based on existing data. The extensive data base

underlying it includes data for 164 countries over as much of the period since 1960. The model itself is a recursive

system that can run without intervention from its initial year, while the model interface facilitates interventions flexibly

across time. The major issue areas conceptualized by Ifs include agriculture and food, economic, environment,

international and sociopolitical, and population. For more information about IFs, see

www.du.edu/~bhughes/ifswelcome.html.

2

Long-run impact has been calculated by this equation: LR X =

3

2

1

4

1

β

β

β

β

−

−

−

. This distributed lag model

captures the long term effects of change.