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Economic Interdependence and Peaceful Power Transition
Unformatted Document Text:  13 1996). I use International Futures (Ifs) software to predict all variables for China and the U.S. for the time period of 2003-2100, and forecast the future power transition between the U.S. and China. 1 In addition, all variables have been calculated by the ADL model of long term effects. 2 Based on the above analysis, we can get the peaceful/conflictual power transition function as the following: μ β β β β α + + + − + = PS SO EI EI S RP CP 4 3 3 2 1 ) )( ( ) ( Where CP is conflictual or peaceful transition; RP represents relative power; EI stands for economic interdependence; SO means speed of overtake; PS refers to political stability; S represents satisfaction to the status quo; while β i s are parameter estimates and μ is the stochastic error term. The empirical tests employ a pooled cross sectional time series analysis to estimate the relationships. The unit increase in economic interdependence does not actually change the probability of conflictual/peaceful transition equally, and would not capture the curvature of interaction. The cubing term of economic interdependence increases the asymmetrical influence at high and low level than squaring the term, which helps us to identify the threshold of economic interdependence. That is, we can easily identify the peak in a sharp inverse “U” than in a flatter peak inverse “U”. The interaction of satisfaction and economic interdependence specifies that if a country is dissatisfied with status quo and has less economic linkage with other countries, it is very likely that power transition between this country and the 1 IFs is a simulation modeling software used for global projections based on existing data. The extensive data base underlying it includes data for 164 countries over as much of the period since 1960. The model itself is a recursive system that can run without intervention from its initial year, while the model interface facilitates interventions flexibly across time. The major issue areas conceptualized by Ifs include agriculture and food, economic, environment, international and sociopolitical, and population. For more information about IFs, see www.du.edu/~bhughes/ifswelcome.html. 2 Long-run impact has been calculated by this equation: LR X = 3 2 1 4 1 β β β β − − − . This distributed lag model captures the long term effects of change.

Authors: Zhou, Xinwu.
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13
1996). I use International Futures (Ifs) software to predict all variables for China and the
U.S. for the time period of 2003-2100, and forecast the future power transition between
the U.S. and China.
1
In addition, all variables have been calculated by the ADL model of
long term effects.
2
Based on the above analysis, we can get the peaceful/conflictual
power transition function as the following:
μ
β
β
β
β
α
+
+
+
+
=
PS
SO
EI
EI
S
RP
CP
4
3
3
2
1
)
)(
(
)
(
Where CP is conflictual or peaceful transition; RP represents relative power; EI
stands for economic interdependence; SO means speed of overtake; PS refers to political
stability; S represents satisfaction to the status quo; while β
i
s are parameter estimates and
μ is the stochastic error term. The empirical tests employ a pooled cross sectional time
series analysis to estimate the relationships. The unit increase in economic
interdependence does not actually change the probability of conflictual/peaceful
transition equally, and would not capture the curvature of interaction. The cubing term of
economic interdependence increases the asymmetrical influence at high and low level
than squaring the term, which helps us to identify the threshold of economic
interdependence. That is, we can easily identify the peak in a sharp inverse “U” than in a
flatter peak inverse “U”. The interaction of satisfaction and economic interdependence
specifies that if a country is dissatisfied with status quo and has less economic linkage
with other countries, it is very likely that power transition between this country and the
1
IFs is a simulation modeling software used for global projections based on existing data. The extensive data base
underlying it includes data for 164 countries over as much of the period since 1960. The model itself is a recursive
system that can run without intervention from its initial year, while the model interface facilitates interventions flexibly
across time. The major issue areas conceptualized by Ifs include agriculture and food, economic, environment,
international and sociopolitical, and population. For more information about IFs, see
www.du.edu/~bhughes/ifswelcome.html.
2
Long-run impact has been calculated by this equation: LR X =
3
2
1
4
1
β
β
β
β
. This distributed lag model
captures the long term effects of change.


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