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Economic Interdependence and Peaceful Power Transition
Unformatted Document Text:  16 Population and economic size are critical to the power transition model. Population is viewed as the basic resource for both economic activity and military force. Early economic activities are labor intensive both in agriculture and industry, thus large population is an asset to economic development. Though industrialization since the eighteenth century increased the productivity and reduced the reliance on large population of workers, technological compensation to labor force did not increase significantly till the end of World War II. Before that, the population size continues to be of great importance, especially in the military personnel. States with larger population have greater potential to catch up and surpass smaller states with developed economy. During the time when technologies are not highly developed, economic power is a more important component of national capability. Therefore, the operationalization of power should focus on quality and on highly specialized global reach capabilities which will provide a more precise fit. Before World II, power has been aggregated by Equation I, population has been weighted more than technological factors. After World War II, technological factor has been more and more important in the composition of national capability. Highly developed technology can facilitate the conversion of economic power into military power. Therefore high technology has been weighted more, while population has been weighted less in the post World War II period. Power has been calculated by the following equation after 1945. Equation II: Govrev mil innov urbanpop totalanpop milper GDPpc Power * exp ) 1 ( * ) ( * 2 ⎥ ⎦ ⎤ ⎢ ⎣ ⎡ + + + =

Authors: Zhou, Xinwu.
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16
Population and economic size are critical to the power transition model. Population
is viewed as the basic resource for both economic activity and military force. Early
economic activities are labor intensive both in agriculture and industry, thus large
population is an asset to economic development. Though industrialization since the
eighteenth century increased the productivity and reduced the reliance on large
population of workers, technological compensation to labor force did not increase
significantly till the end of World War II. Before that, the population size continues to be
of great importance, especially in the military personnel. States with larger population
have greater potential to catch up and surpass smaller states with developed economy.
During the time when technologies are not highly developed, economic power is a more
important component of national capability. Therefore, the operationalization of power
should focus on quality and on highly specialized global reach capabilities which will
provide a more precise fit.
Before World II, power has been aggregated by Equation I, population has been
weighted more than technological factors. After World War II, technological factor has
been more and more important in the composition of national capability. Highly
developed technology can facilitate the conversion of economic power into military
power. Therefore high technology has been weighted more, while population has been
weighted less in the post World War II period. Power has been calculated by the
following equation after 1945.
Equation II:
Govrev
mil
innov
urbanpop
totalanpop
milper
GDPpc
Power
*
exp
)
1
(
*
)
(
*
2
+
+
+
=


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