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Economic Interdependence and Peaceful Power Transition
Unformatted Document Text:  21 As expected, speed of overtaking is positive and highly significant. This finding supports Efrin’s (2003) argument that fast overtaking will greatly shorten the time period when the rising state and the dominant state are roughly equal of power. Slow overtaking increased the parity time, which in turn increase the maximum friction and propensity of conflict. Economic interdependence to the system variable is positively associated with the conflictual transition. High level of economic interdependence is associated with high probability of peaceful transition. On the other hand, lower level of economic interdependence will give the rising state free hand to fight against the status quo. Major powers are much wealthier than other states, therefore they are more likely to be involved into international economic affairs. The effect of economic interdependence is even more prominent in the major power model than in the full sample. The dyadic economic interdependence of the rising state and the dominant state variable is also significant and positively related with peaceful transition. The relationship with the dependent variable is weaker than the economic interdependence to the system variable. By holding all other variables constant at their mean value, one unit change of economic interdependent to the system can increase the probability of peaceful transition by about 11.25 percent, and one standard deviation change of dyadic economic interdependence of the rising state and dominant state can increase the probability of peaceful transition of about 5.32 percent. This indicates that more economic ties with other states in the system can be a greater restriction to the rising state to initiate attack against the status quo. Though economic ties with the dominant state can also be a concern to the rising state, but the dissatisfaction can not be reduced.

Authors: Zhou, Xinwu.
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21
As expected, speed of overtaking is positive and highly significant. This finding
supports Efrin’s (2003) argument that fast overtaking will greatly shorten the time period
when the rising state and the dominant state are roughly equal of power. Slow overtaking
increased the parity time, which in turn increase the maximum friction and propensity of
conflict.
Economic interdependence to the system variable is positively associated with the
conflictual transition. High level of economic interdependence is associated with high
probability of peaceful transition. On the other hand, lower level of economic
interdependence will give the rising state free hand to fight against the status quo. Major
powers are much wealthier than other states, therefore they are more likely to be involved
into international economic affairs. The effect of economic interdependence is even more
prominent in the major power model than in the full sample.
The dyadic economic interdependence of the rising state and the dominant state
variable is also significant and positively related with peaceful transition. The
relationship with the dependent variable is weaker than the economic interdependence to
the system variable. By holding all other variables constant at their mean value, one unit
change of economic interdependent to the system can increase the probability of peaceful
transition by about 11.25 percent, and one standard deviation change of dyadic economic
interdependence of the rising state and dominant state can increase the probability of
peaceful transition of about 5.32 percent. This indicates that more economic ties with
other states in the system can be a greater restriction to the rising state to initiate attack
against the status quo. Though economic ties with the dominant state can also be a
concern to the rising state, but the dissatisfaction can not be reduced.


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