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Economic Interdependence and Peaceful Power Transition
Unformatted Document Text:  24 to the U.S. When Chinese economic interdependence reaches about 60 percent, and Sino- U.S. trade reaches about 45 percent, the probability of Chinese attack on the status quo will be very low. For the full sample, institutional similarity is insignificant, which suggests that we are not sure about the relationship between the democratization of China and the probability of a peaceful transition. The predicted Chinese Polity Score needed to be raised above positive 8, before this variable became significant. This means that only very similar institutions can help to increase the likelihood of peaceful transition. Empirically, it is still unknown if China will be dissatisfied with the structure of the international system set by the U.S. But with the evidence I mentioned at the beginning of this article, we can be sure that the U.S. perceived China as a growing threat since the end of the last century. The probability of conflict will increase greatly if China is dissatisfied with this system. To reduce the chances of conflict, the U.S. should have more engagement with China to enhance the bilateral relations, it should also aim at increasing China’s involvement in regional and international affairs. Chinese participation in the North Korean nuclear issue dialogue is a good start for the integration of China into East Asian regional affairs, which might increase Chinese satisfaction with the status quo. Multilateral economic ties are another important way to increase the probability of cooperation between China and the whole system. The implication for this forecasting model is that conflicts, co-operation and competition will be emerging characteristics in Sino-US relations in this new century. The foundation for co-operation is that the two countries are satisfied with the status quo and don’t perceive the other as a major threat to its national interest. China needs a stable

Authors: Zhou, Xinwu.
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24
to the U.S. When Chinese economic interdependence reaches about 60 percent, and Sino-
U.S. trade reaches about 45 percent, the probability of Chinese attack on the status quo
will be very low.
For the full sample, institutional similarity is insignificant, which suggests that we
are not sure about the relationship between the democratization of China and the
probability of a peaceful transition. The predicted Chinese Polity Score needed to be
raised above positive 8, before this variable became significant. This means that only
very similar institutions can help to increase the likelihood of peaceful transition.
Empirically, it is still unknown if China will be dissatisfied with the structure of the
international system set by the U.S. But with the evidence I mentioned at the beginning
of this article, we can be sure that the U.S. perceived China as a growing threat since the
end of the last century. The probability of conflict will increase greatly if China is
dissatisfied with this system. To reduce the chances of conflict, the U.S. should have
more engagement with China to enhance the bilateral relations, it should also aim at
increasing China’s involvement in regional and international affairs. Chinese
participation in the North Korean nuclear issue dialogue is a good start for the integration
of China into East Asian regional affairs, which might increase Chinese satisfaction with
the status quo. Multilateral economic ties are another important way to increase the
probability of cooperation between China and the whole system.
The implication for this forecasting model is that conflicts, co-operation and
competition will be emerging characteristics in Sino-US relations in this new century.
The foundation for co-operation is that the two countries are satisfied with the status quo
and don’t perceive the other as a major threat to its national interest. China needs a stable


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