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Economic Interdependence and Peaceful Power Transition
Unformatted Document Text:  3 both security and economic affairs for great powers in international relations. This thesis integrates the liberal ideas into the realist explanation of the dynamics of interstate behavior. Realist concepts of power change, alliance formation, security concern together with liberal factors of economic interdependence and domestic political stability provide and account of international relations that allows us to anticipate when peace will occur as well as when major wars are expected. The integration of both realist and liberal view provide the analyses a much sounder basis. First, the thesis discusses the development of power transition theory, its theoretical importance and potential extension. Based on the logical arguments about the causal linkage of economic interdependence and political stability to conflicts in addition to structural factors in power transition dynamics, the empirical tests of the hypotheses expand its explanation target from major powers to both major and minor powers. This is consistent with the insights of Lemke (1996), Lemke and Werner (1996), Lemke (2002), Efird, Kugler and Genna (2003). While using the similar method of analysis, this research provides a more theoretically grounded specification of the influence of political stability and economic interdependence on power transition dynamics. Next, the thesis applies the findings to the potential U.S.-China transition in the twenty first century. The simulation of the potential power transition dynamic predicts the prospect for conflict or integration by a continuous process which is conditioned in a large part by structural factors, as well as economic interdependence and political stability on a dyadic level. This thesis examines conditions under which cooperation will be possible during a potential transition and analyzes the findings to gain a better understanding of how a peaceful U.S.-China transition could occur. The use of new and

Authors: Zhou, Xinwu.
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both security and economic affairs for great powers in international relations. This thesis
integrates the liberal ideas into the realist explanation of the dynamics of interstate
behavior. Realist concepts of power change, alliance formation, security concern together
with liberal factors of economic interdependence and domestic political stability provide
and account of international relations that allows us to anticipate when peace will occur
as well as when major wars are expected. The integration of both realist and liberal view
provide the analyses a much sounder basis.
First, the thesis discusses the development of power transition theory, its theoretical
importance and potential extension. Based on the logical arguments about the causal
linkage of economic interdependence and political stability to conflicts in addition to
structural factors in power transition dynamics, the empirical tests of the hypotheses
expand its explanation target from major powers to both major and minor powers. This is
consistent with the insights of Lemke (1996), Lemke and Werner (1996), Lemke (2002),
Efird, Kugler and Genna (2003). While using the similar method of analysis, this
research provides a more theoretically grounded specification of the influence of political
stability and economic interdependence on power transition dynamics.
Next, the thesis applies the findings to the potential U.S.-China transition in the
twenty first century. The simulation of the potential power transition dynamic predicts
the prospect for conflict or integration by a continuous process which is conditioned in a
large part by structural factors, as well as economic interdependence and political
stability on a dyadic level. This thesis examines conditions under which cooperation will
be possible during a potential transition and analyzes the findings to gain a better
understanding of how a peaceful U.S.-China transition could occur. The use of new and


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