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Economic Interdependence and Peaceful Power Transition
Unformatted Document Text:  8 the challenger. In addition to trade, frequent capital flow also increases economic interdependence and has peace effects. Consistent with Polachek (1980), Gasiorowski & Polachek (1982), Domke (1988) and Mansfield (1994), this research posits that the globalization of international economic activities such as import, export, foreign direct investment, and capital mobility, increase economic interdependence among states. Economic interdependence can motivate peace as conflict may be so costly that states will prefer any other outcome than enduring high level conflict (Gartzke, Li and Boehmer 2001). For the rising state, faster economic development requires more involvement in the international economy, which means a greater reliance on the benefits that the status quo provides. Thus, it will be less likely to start challenges that might break up the system structure. Further, a high level of economic development increases both energy and natural resources consumption, which in turn increase the dependence on foreign natural resources. Economic interdependence to the international system increases while state’s power is growing at a very fast pace. Therefore economic interdependence decreases the probability of a rising state challenging the existing international system as it brings about great economic benefits. Trade ties with other major powers can also be damaged by conflicts during transition. Breaking the system is too costly. For the dominant state, high economic interdependence can also hinder them from fighting a preventive war. The higher the economic interdependence, the more it benefits from keeping the status quo. For the leading state, it is helpful to have a comprehensive engagement with potential rising states, rather than excluding them from the system. As the rising states get more involved into systemic affairs, they are more constrained in fighting a war against the

Authors: Zhou, Xinwu.
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8
the challenger. In addition to trade, frequent capital flow also increases economic
interdependence and has peace effects.
Consistent with Polachek (1980), Gasiorowski & Polachek (1982), Domke (1988)
and Mansfield (1994), this research posits that the globalization of international economic
activities such as import, export, foreign direct investment, and capital mobility, increase
economic interdependence among states. Economic interdependence can motivate peace
as conflict may be so costly that states will prefer any other outcome than enduring high
level conflict (Gartzke, Li and Boehmer 2001). For the rising state, faster economic
development requires more involvement in the international economy, which means a
greater reliance on the benefits that the status quo provides. Thus, it will be less likely to
start challenges that might break up the system structure.
Further, a high level of economic development increases both energy and natural
resources consumption, which in turn increase the dependence on foreign natural
resources. Economic interdependence to the international system increases while state’s
power is growing at a very fast pace. Therefore economic interdependence decreases the
probability of a rising state challenging the existing international system as it brings
about great economic benefits. Trade ties with other major powers can also be damaged
by conflicts during transition. Breaking the system is too costly. For the dominant state,
high economic interdependence can also hinder them from fighting a preventive war. The
higher the economic interdependence, the more it benefits from keeping the status quo.
For the leading state, it is helpful to have a comprehensive engagement with potential
rising states, rather than excluding them from the system. As the rising states get more
involved into systemic affairs, they are more constrained in fighting a war against the


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