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Decision Makers' Use of False Analogies Causing Miscalculation and War
Unformatted Document Text:  Horan 39 administration ignored disagreements among the various agencies regarding Iraq’s weapon capabilities and the connections between Hussein and Osama bin Laden. 78 As H 4 describes, the analogy to the Second World War also defined the interests of the United States, to depose Saddam Hussein and instate a democracy. These interests were not applicable to the current situation and did not consider the complications specific to Iraq. These informational analogies caused the Bush administration to miscalculate the threat Iraq posed to the world through overlooking evidence related to weapons of mass destruction and the feasibility of deterring Saddam Hussein. Not only did miscalculation occur from the “Fight against Fascism” analogy used for informational purposes but also justification. Through using Pearl Harbor and World War II as a point of reference, the public and the Bush administration Bush were deceived about the threat Iraq posed and falsely hoped for a similar result to the Second World War reflected in H 6 . However no weapons of mass destruction were found and Iraq fell quickly although the rebuilding process is more difficult than expected. To the public, President “Bush rode the popular association of 9/11 and Saddam Hussein, along with claims that Iraq presented an imminent threat to the international community by possessing weapons of mass destruction, and launched a preemptive war.” 79 The pessimistic offensive miscalculation that arose from using analogies to previous failures led to a policy of preemption through seeing a window of opportunity without considering the specific nature of Iraq and analyzing its capabilities. The “Irrelevance of Vietnam”: A Persian Gulf War Analogy While analogies to World War II were prevalent through out the decision making process, references to Vietnam confronted the Bush administration and the American public. Through 78 Moens, 169. 79 Jesperson, 413-414.

Authors: Horan, Elizabeth.
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Horan 39
administration ignored disagreements among the various agencies regarding Iraq’s weapon
capabilities and the connections between Hussein and Osama bin Laden.
As H
4
describes, the
analogy to the Second World War also defined the interests of the United States, to depose
Saddam Hussein and instate a democracy. These interests were not applicable to the current
situation and did not consider the complications specific to Iraq. These informational analogies
caused the Bush administration to miscalculate the threat Iraq posed to the world through
overlooking evidence related to weapons of mass destruction and the feasibility of deterring
Saddam Hussein. Not only did miscalculation occur from the “Fight against Fascism” analogy
used for informational purposes but also justification. Through using Pearl Harbor and World
War II as a point of reference, the public and the Bush administration Bush were deceived about
the threat Iraq posed and falsely hoped for a similar result to the Second World War reflected in
H
6
. However no weapons of mass destruction were found and Iraq fell quickly although the
rebuilding process is more difficult than expected. To the public, President “Bush rode the
popular association of 9/11 and Saddam Hussein, along with claims that Iraq presented an
imminent threat to the international community by possessing weapons of mass destruction, and
launched a preemptive war.”
The pessimistic offensive miscalculation that arose from using
analogies to previous failures led to a policy of preemption through seeing a window of
opportunity without considering the specific nature of Iraq and analyzing its capabilities.
The “Irrelevance of Vietnam”: A Persian Gulf War Analogy
While analogies to World War II were prevalent through out the decision making process,
references to Vietnam confronted the Bush administration and the American public. Through
78
Moens, 169.
79
Jesperson, 413-414.


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