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Hegemonic Competition, Hegemonic Disruption and the Current War
Unformatted Document Text:  Newmann: DRAFT: Please do not cite without permission nations, sometimes aligned, sometimes feuding that held power in nations on every continent except North America, fueled insurgent threats from Central America, to Southeast Asia, to Southern Africa, and included among its number Russia and China. The al-Qaeda network is a revolutionary movement akin to communist subversion through wars of national liberation during the cold war. Therefore, even without succeeding in seizing power the revolution could move many states into the category of failed state or at least at risk state. In addition a government may also be “Finlandized” into withdrawing from a relationship wit the US by terrorist attack and the emergence of ideological brethren to al-Qaeda. The revolutionary ideology will be fueled by Sustainability of the network and the ideology has three elements: the use of the ungovernable failed states to develop sanctuaries, the sponsorship of radical regimes already in power, and terrorist attacks against the US and its allies the to send a consistent coercive message: hands off the part of the world that we have labeled ours. The scenario is of an arc throughout Asia and Africa from Morocco to Indonesia and Kazakhstan to Sudan of instability and civil war fueled by insurgency and terrorism, or renegade regimes, or nations who opt out of hegemonic norms. These at risk or failing states would require massive US government assistance to fight off the challengers to the US-allied government similar to US cold war efforts in various nations – Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Chile, South Korea, Indonesia, or Zaire to name a few. US containment policy during the cold war often ignored the notion of spreading liberal democracy and settled instead for alliances with nations or regimes that were anti-communist, regardless of their human and civil rights records. Whether the US can again maintain domestic and international support for a policy of supporting the enemy of its enemy – authoritarian states who oppose al-Qaeda and its ideology – will be addressed in the concluding section of this essay. The regional, US domestic, and international dynamics of this model illustrate how asymmetric disruption of US hegemony can lead to real changes in the balance of power and potential challenges to US hegemony by second-tier powers. The dynamics at all three levels do not operate in isolation. At key points in the model political developments at one level influence the political developments at another level. Figure Two provides an illustration of how the model of hegemonic disruption affects all three 14

Authors: Newmann, William.
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Newmann: DRAFT: Please do not cite without permission
nations, sometimes aligned, sometimes feuding that held power in nations on every continent except
North America, fueled insurgent threats from Central America, to Southeast Asia, to Southern Africa, and
included among its number Russia and China. The al-Qaeda network is a revolutionary movement akin to
communist subversion through wars of national liberation during the cold war. Therefore, even without
succeeding in seizing power the revolution could move many states into the category of failed state or at
least at risk state. In addition a government may also be “Finlandized” into withdrawing from a
relationship wit the US by terrorist attack and the emergence of ideological brethren to al-Qaeda. The
revolutionary ideology will be fueled by Sustainability of the network and the ideology has three
elements: the use of the ungovernable failed states to develop sanctuaries, the sponsorship of radical
regimes already in power, and terrorist attacks against the US and its allies the to send a consistent
coercive message: hands off the part of the world that we have labeled ours.
The scenario is of an arc throughout Asia and Africa from Morocco to Indonesia and Kazakhstan to
Sudan of instability and civil war fueled by insurgency and terrorism, or renegade regimes, or nations
who opt out of hegemonic norms. These at risk or failing states would require massive US government
assistance to fight off the challengers to the US-allied government similar to US cold war efforts in
various nations – Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Chile, South Korea, Indonesia, or Zaire
to name a few. US containment policy during the cold war often ignored the notion of spreading liberal
democracy and settled instead for alliances with nations or regimes that were anti-communist, regardless
of their human and civil rights records. Whether the US can again maintain domestic and international
support for a policy of supporting the enemy of its enemy – authoritarian states who oppose al-Qaeda and
its ideology – will be addressed in the concluding section of this essay.
The regional, US domestic, and international dynamics of this model illustrate how asymmetric
disruption of US hegemony can lead to real changes in the balance of power and potential challenges to
US hegemony by second-tier powers. The dynamics at all three levels do not operate in isolation. At key
points in the model political developments at one level influence the political developments at another
level. Figure Two provides an illustration of how the model of hegemonic disruption affects all three
14


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