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Hegemonic Competition, Hegemonic Disruption and the Current War
Unformatted Document Text:  Newmann: DRAFT: Please do not cite without permission be active in sixty-five nations, across every continent except South America; this includes activity in twenty-five US states and the District of Columbia. 79 Since the 9/11 attacks, al-Qaeda or its affiliates have been linked to thirty-three attacks in seventeen nations across Asia, Europe, Africa, as well as several foiled plots in N. America. These numbers do not include attacks in Iraq or Afghanistan that are related to the on-going wars in both nations. 80 Heightened counterterrorism efforts across the globe have not seemed to lessen al-Qaeda’s ability to carry out attacks. One research organization’s analysis of al- Qaeda’s operational tempo shows that since 2002 al-Qaeda has stepped up its activities. Before 2002 only one major operation was conducted per year; since then, al-Qaeda has been able to launch eight such attacks. 81 Declassified findings of the US National Intelligence Council’s April 2006 National Intelligence Estimate conclude that that al-Qaeda’s is enhancing its capability --- the number of al-Qaeda members is increasing, as is the organizations geographic reach. 82 In a strategic sense, geographically and in terms of its ability to use force on a global scale, al-Qaeda has gone beyond what any previous terrorist group has achieved – it has reached strategic capability. With a strong ideological foundation, a clearly articulated and disseminated mission statement, and an ability to launch strikes globally, al-Qaeda looms as the dark side of globalization and the growing power of non-governmental organizations. Strategic actors have the ability to influence the foreign policies of nation-states and to influence the global balance of power. The latter attribute is addressed in a subsequent section and is, in part, based on potential scenarios of al-Qeada’s challenge. However, al- Qaeda has already demonstrated its ability to influence the foreign policies of nation- states. Its use of 79 Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism, Terrorism Knowledge Base, “Group Profile: Al-Qaeda.” Available at http://www.tkb.org/Group.jsp?groupID=6 . Accessed March 14, 2007; and US House of Representatives Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, Al_Qaeda: The Many Faces of an Islamic Extremist Threat, Report of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence June 2006, p. 7 and 19. Available at http://intelligence.house.gov/Media/PDFS/ExtremistThreat.pdf. Accessed March 14 , 2007. 80 Estimate based on US Army, “Timeline of Terrorism.” Available at http://www.army.mil/terrorism/2006-2000/index.html . Accessed March 14, 2007; BBC News, “Timeline: Al-Qaeda,” September 4, 2006. Available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/3618762.stm . Accessed March 14, 2007; and MSNBC On Line “Al-Qaeda Timeline: Plots and Attacks.” Available at http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4677978/ . Accessed March 14, 2007. 81 Intel Center, “Jihadi Ops Tempo Statistics,” V. 1.4, May 19, 2006. Available at http://www.intelcenter.com/JOTS-PUB- v1-4.pdf p. 4. Accessed March 14, 2007. 82 US Government, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, “Declassified Key Judgments of the National Intelligence Estimate, ‘Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States,’ dated April 2006.” Available at http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/Declassified_NIE_Key_Judgments.pdf p. 1. Accessed March 14, 2007. 28

Authors: Newmann, William.
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Newmann: DRAFT: Please do not cite without permission
be active in sixty-five nations, across every continent except South America; this includes activity in
twenty-five US states and the District of Columbia.
Since the 9/11 attacks, al-Qaeda or its affiliates
have been linked to thirty-three attacks in seventeen nations across Asia, Europe, Africa, as well as
several foiled plots in N. America. These numbers do not include attacks in Iraq or Afghanistan that are
related to the on-going wars in both nations.
Heightened counterterrorism efforts across the globe have
not seemed to lessen al-Qaeda’s ability to carry out attacks. One research organization’s analysis of al-
Qaeda’s operational tempo shows that since 2002 al-Qaeda has stepped up its activities. Before 2002
only one major operation was conducted per year; since then, al-Qaeda has been able to launch eight such
attacks.
Declassified findings of the US National Intelligence Council’s April 2006 National Intelligence
Estimate conclude that that al-Qaeda’s is enhancing its capability --- the number of al-Qaeda members is
increasing, as is the organizations geographic reach.
In a strategic sense, geographically and in terms of
its ability to use force on a global scale, al-Qaeda has gone beyond what any previous terrorist group has
achieved – it has reached strategic capability.
With a strong ideological foundation, a clearly articulated and disseminated mission statement,
and an ability to launch strikes globally, al-Qaeda looms as the dark side of globalization and the growing
power of non-governmental organizations. Strategic actors have the ability to influence the foreign
policies of nation-states and to influence the global balance of power. The latter attribute is addressed in
a subsequent section and is, in part, based on potential scenarios of al-Qeada’s challenge. However, al-
Qaeda has already demonstrated its ability to influence the foreign policies of nation- states. Its use of
79
Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism, Terrorism Knowledge Base, “Group Profile: Al-Qaeda.” Available at
. Accessed March 14, 2007; and US House of Representatives Permanent Select
Committee on Intelligence, Al_Qaeda: The Many Faces of an Islamic Extremist Threat, Report of the House Permanent Select
Committee on Intelligence June 2006, p. 7 and 19. Available at
, 2007.
80
Estimate based on US Army, “Timeline of Terrorism.” Available at
.
Accessed March 14, 2007; BBC News, “Timeline: Al-Qaeda,” September 4, 2006. Available at
. Accessed March 14, 2007; and MSNBC On Line “Al-Qaeda Timeline: Plots and
Attacks.” Available at
. Accessed March 14, 2007.
81
Intel Center, “Jihadi Ops Tempo Statistics,” V. 1.4, May 19, 2006. Available at
p. 4. Accessed March 14, 2007.
82
US Government, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, “Declassified Key Judgments of the National Intelligence
Estimate, ‘Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States,’ dated April 2006.” Available at
p. 1. Accessed March 14, 2007.
28


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