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Gambling on Conflict: Profiling Investments in Conflict Countries
Unformatted Document Text:  Andreea Mihalache Updated: March 20, 2008 towards political violence in the host. Important for this study is the fact that approximately 90% of the 177 respondents selected in the subsample have influence or responsibility in strategic risk management decisions in their organizations (rather than just a working knowledge of the foreign affiliate). 6.2. Models and variables Dependent variable: Perceived threat from political violence Conceptually, the dependent variable in my study is the respondent’s perception of threat posed by political violence to her firm’s operations in developing markets. In the EIU-ACE survey, one question is particularly useful for operationalizing this concept: “How significant do you consider the following risks—war/major social unrest—to be in the context of your organisation's emerging markets investments?” In the original data, responses range from 1 to 5, with 1 indicating “very significant” and 5 indicating “not at all significant”. I reverse the scale of this variable, for a more intuitive match with the concept it measures. I also recode “I don’t know” answers as missing 22 . On the new scale, low values represent the perception of low risks from war and major social unrest. High values represent high perceived risk. There are 160 non-missing responses for the dependent variable, PVthreat1, and their distribution is presented in Figure 9. Figure 8 here Based on the new response scale, illustrated in Figure 8, I create two other variables to use for robustness checks. The new variables are based on the assumption that the underlying characteristic of respondents who stated that they perceive “no risk” 22 Only 3 respondents, corresponding to (1.9% of the total of 160 responses to this question) answered “I don’t know.” 31

Authors: Mihalache, Andreea.
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background image
Andreea Mihalache
Updated: March 20, 2008
towards political violence in the host. Important for this study is the fact that
approximately 90% of the 177 respondents selected in the subsample have influence or
responsibility in strategic risk management decisions in their organizations (rather than
just a working knowledge of the foreign affiliate).
6.2. Models and variables
Dependent variable: Perceived threat from political violence
Conceptually, the dependent variable in my study is the respondent’s perception
of threat posed by political violence to her firm’s operations in developing markets. In
the EIU-ACE survey, one question is particularly useful for operationalizing this concept:
“How significant do you consider the following risks—war/major social unrest—to be in
the context of your organisation's emerging markets investments?” In the original data,
responses range from 1 to 5, with 1 indicating “very significant” and 5 indicating “not at
all significant”. I reverse the scale of this variable, for a more intuitive match with the
concept it measures. I also recode “I don’t know” answers as missing
. On the new
scale, low values represent the perception of low risks from war and major social unrest.
High values represent high perceived risk. There are 160 non-missing responses for the
dependent variable, PVthreat1, and their distribution is presented in Figure 9.
Figure 8 here
Based on the new response scale, illustrated in Figure 8, I create two other
variables to use for robustness checks. The new variables are based on the assumption
that the underlying characteristic of respondents who stated that they perceive “no risk”
22
Only 3 respondents, corresponding to (1.9% of the total of 160 responses to this question) answered “I
don’t know.”
31


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