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Gambling on Conflict: Profiling Investments in Conflict Countries
Unformatted Document Text:  Andreea Mihalache Updated: March 20, 2008 and related activities, or education, and 0 otherwise. PCT is coded 1 for respondents whose industry is constructions, transportation, telecommunications, or wholesale and retain trade, and 0 otherwise. Primary takes values of 1 if the respondent named energy and natural resources as her industry and 0 otherwise. In my sample, there are 103 KCT investments, 11 PCT investments, and 26 primary investments, for a maximum N of 140. Control variables The most important empirical challenge to my analysis is differentiating between low-risk and high-risk environments. Arguably, respondents with investments in hosts with high political violence risk will systematically perceive higher threats from political violence, regardless of their industry. Similarly, respondents with operations in countries with low probabilities of political violence will perceive lower risks from political violence, regardless of the characteristics of their investment. It is, therefore, important to control for the probability of political violence in the host, before I can draw conclusions regarding the effect of investment characteristics on the level of threat perception. The survey does not identify the country or region where each respondent’s foreign operations are located, so I control for host country characteristics through answers to a set of questions that ask respondents to evaluate the quality of and changes in the environment of their emerging market operations. The first in this set of questions is: “Thinking of your organisation’s investments in emerging markets, how do you think the level of risk has changed over the past three years,” with answers ranging from 1 (decreased significantly) to 5 (increased significantly). Political violence clearly represents one of the most important sources of 33

Authors: Mihalache, Andreea.
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Andreea Mihalache
Updated: March 20, 2008
and related activities, or education, and 0 otherwise. PCT is coded 1 for respondents
whose industry is constructions, transportation, telecommunications, or wholesale and
retain trade, and 0 otherwise. Primary takes values of 1 if the respondent named energy
and natural resources as her industry and 0 otherwise. In my sample, there are 103 KCT
investments, 11 PCT investments, and 26 primary investments, for a maximum N of 140.
Control variables
The most important empirical challenge to my analysis is differentiating between
low-risk and high-risk environments. Arguably, respondents with investments in hosts
with high political violence risk will systematically perceive higher threats from political
violence, regardless of their industry. Similarly, respondents with operations in countries
with low probabilities of political violence will perceive lower risks from political
violence, regardless of the characteristics of their investment. It is, therefore, important
to control for the probability of political violence in the host, before I can draw
conclusions regarding the effect of investment characteristics on the level of threat
perception. The survey does not identify the country or region where each respondent’s
foreign operations are located, so I control for host country characteristics through
answers to a set of questions that ask respondents to evaluate the quality of and changes
in the environment of their emerging market operations.
The first in this set of questions is: “Thinking of your organisation’s investments
in emerging markets, how do you think the level of risk has changed over the past three
years,” with answers ranging from 1 (decreased significantly) to 5 (increased
significantly). Political violence clearly represents one of the most important sources of
33


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