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Predicted impacts of ocean climate change on a sensitive indicator, the seabird Cassin’s auklet, in a productive marine ecosystem

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Abstract:

Forecasting the ecological effects of anthropogenic climate change is critical for developing conservation strategies that increase population resilience under changing climate conditions. Coastal upwelling systems are among the most productive marine ecosytems predicted to experience significant effects from climate change, making them priorities for ecological forecasting. We examined the population consequences of ocean climate change in the California Current upwelling system on the planktivorous seabird Cassin’s auklet (Ptychoramphus aleuticus), a demographically sensitive indicator of marine climate change. We forecast changes in the population growth rate of the Cassin’s auklet population at the Farallon Islands, central California, using late 21st century climate projections from a regional climate model and relationships between auklet demography and oceanography developed from long-term datasets. We also evaluated future ocean climate change across California auklet colonies. The Farallon Cassin’s auklet population growth rate decreased by 8%-49% when demographic rates were modeled as a function of sea surface temperature and by 0.5%-2.5% when modeled as a function of upwelling intensity, suggesting significant future population declines. Projected seasonal changes in upwelling timing and intensity varied across California colonies, indicating heterogeneity in future conditions for auklets. The Farallon auklet population has declined by ~6%/year during the past three decades and climate change will likely accelerate these declines. Conservation strategies for seabirds should increase population resilience by protecting colonies across the breeding range and reducing non-climate stressors.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

chang (37), climat (37), auklet (29), popul (20), al (19), et (19), upwel (18), speci (17), california (17), cassin (16), model (14), marin (14), studi (12), ocean (11), ecolog (11), use (11), current (10), condit (10), forecast (10), ecosystem (10), rate (10),

Author's Keywords:

climate change, seabird, Cassin’s auklet, upwelling, temperature, California Current System, demography, population modeling, adaptation
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Association:
Name: International Marine Conservation Congress
URL:
http://www2.cedarcrest.edu/imcc/index.html


Citation:
URL: http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p296528_index.html
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MLA Citation:

Wolf, Shaye., Snyder, Mark., Sydeman, William. and Croll, Donald. "Predicted impacts of ocean climate change on a sensitive indicator, the seabird Cassin’s auklet, in a productive marine ecosystem" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Marine Conservation Congress, George Madison University, Fairfax, Virginia, May 20, 2009 <Not Available>. 2014-11-29 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p296528_index.html>

APA Citation:

Wolf, S. , Snyder, M. , Sydeman, W. and Croll, D. , 2009-05-20 "Predicted impacts of ocean climate change on a sensitive indicator, the seabird Cassin’s auklet, in a productive marine ecosystem" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Marine Conservation Congress, George Madison University, Fairfax, Virginia Online <PDF>. 2014-11-29 from http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p296528_index.html

Publication Type: Oral Presentation
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Forecasting the ecological effects of anthropogenic climate change is critical for developing conservation strategies that increase population resilience under changing climate conditions. Coastal upwelling systems are among the most productive marine ecosytems predicted to experience significant effects from climate change, making them priorities for ecological forecasting. We examined the population consequences of ocean climate change in the California Current upwelling system on the planktivorous seabird Cassin’s auklet (Ptychoramphus aleuticus), a demographically sensitive indicator of marine climate change. We forecast changes in the population growth rate of the Cassin’s auklet population at the Farallon Islands, central California, using late 21st century climate projections from a regional climate model and relationships between auklet demography and oceanography developed from long-term datasets. We also evaluated future ocean climate change across California auklet colonies. The Farallon Cassin’s auklet population growth rate decreased by 8%-49% when demographic rates were modeled as a function of sea surface temperature and by 0.5%-2.5% when modeled as a function of upwelling intensity, suggesting significant future population declines. Projected seasonal changes in upwelling timing and intensity varied across California colonies, indicating heterogeneity in future conditions for auklets. The Farallon auklet population has declined by ~6%/year during the past three decades and climate change will likely accelerate these declines. Conservation strategies for seabirds should increase population resilience by protecting colonies across the breeding range and reducing non-climate stressors.


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