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Prediction of new firms performance: some practices that increase the odds of success

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Abstract:

This study developed an ordered probit model to predict small and medium size enterprise performance in Chile as failed, mediocre, or successful, which is more robust than the commonly used binary probit and logit models. The model variables that explain and predict levels of performance are: use of the Internet, starting with adequate working capital, having good financial and accounting records and controls, using specific plans, having higher levels of education, partners, parents owning a business, and marketing the firm. The model is significant (p = .000) and all the variable coeffients, except education, were significant. The sample includes 403 small businesses classified as: 158 failed, 101 mediocre, and 144 successful firms. The model can benefit both the would be and current entrepreneurs; those who assist, train and advise them; those who provide capital and supplies for their ventures; public policy makers; entrenpeurship and small business educators and researchers. Implications focus on improving success and avoiding failure of small businesses, and public policy recommendations in Chile are discussed.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

busi (164), f (160), success (90), n (86), model (82), variabl (74), firm (73), small (64), 1 (59), perform (53), use (49), p (41), lussier (34), econom (33), failur (32), fail (32), 2 (32), chile (32), y (31), research (30), ventur (29),

Author's Keywords:

Firm Success, Firm Failure, Performance Prediction, Internet, Working capital, Financial information, Record keeping, Planning, Education, Marketing Efforts, Ordered Probit
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MLA Citation:

Halabí, Claudia. and Lussier, Robert. "Prediction of new firms performance: some practices that increase the odds of success" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the BALAS Annual Conference, ITESM, Guadalajara, Mexico, Apr 01, 2009 <Not Available>. 2013-05-05 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p300170_index.html>

APA Citation:

Halabí, C. E. and Lussier, R. N. , 2009-04-01 "Prediction of new firms performance: some practices that increase the odds of success" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the BALAS Annual Conference, ITESM, Guadalajara, Mexico Online <PDF>. 2013-05-05 from http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p300170_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: This study developed an ordered probit model to predict small and medium size enterprise performance in Chile as failed, mediocre, or successful, which is more robust than the commonly used binary probit and logit models. The model variables that explain and predict levels of performance are: use of the Internet, starting with adequate working capital, having good financial and accounting records and controls, using specific plans, having higher levels of education, partners, parents owning a business, and marketing the firm. The model is significant (p = .000) and all the variable coeffients, except education, were significant. The sample includes 403 small businesses classified as: 158 failed, 101 mediocre, and 144 successful firms. The model can benefit both the would be and current entrepreneurs; those who assist, train and advise them; those who provide capital and supplies for their ventures; public policy makers; entrenpeurship and small business educators and researchers. Implications focus on improving success and avoiding failure of small businesses, and public policy recommendations in Chile are discussed.

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