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Conceptual Modeling: Missing Link In The Analytic Process

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Abstract:

Explicit conceptual modeling (ECM) within intelligence analysis is a topic on which very little specific research has been done, however; when considering the complexity and depth of most intelligence requirements it becomes evident that consideration of this topic is both crucial and long overdue. This study examines what little literature exists on conceptual modeling within the field of intelligence, in addition to discussing relevant studies from other fields that help to shed light on the need for, and value of, incorporating this technique into intelligence analysis. After examining the pertinent literature, an experiment was conducted to test the hypothesis that intelligence analysts who engage in ECM will generate better analytic products, as evaluated by thoroughness of process and accuracy of product, than analysts who do not. However, despite a wealth of literature strongly suggesting that ECM will improve analysis, the results of this study’s experiment did not support that notion. This paper concludes with recommendations for future research, and this author’s opinion regarding the lack of support shown for ECM in this study’s results.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

group (81), model (73), conceptu (44), intellig (44), analysi (32), particip (31), individu (30), concept (28), experiment (28), control (23), analyt (23), research (21), studi (20), process (20), one (19), jefferson (19), ecm (18), result (18), analyst (17), inform (17), requir (16),

Author's Keywords:

Intelligence, Conceptual Models, Structured Methods, Convergent Thinking
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Name: ISA's 50th ANNUAL CONVENTION "EXPLORING THE PAST, ANTICIPATING THE FUTURE"
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http://www.isanet.org


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MLA Citation:

Ferrucci, Shannon. "Conceptual Modeling: Missing Link In The Analytic Process" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the ISA's 50th ANNUAL CONVENTION "EXPLORING THE PAST, ANTICIPATING THE FUTURE", New York Marriott Marquis, NEW YORK CITY, NY, USA, Feb 15, 2009 <Not Available>. 2014-11-30 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p313548_index.html>

APA Citation:

Ferrucci, S. L. , 2009-02-15 "Conceptual Modeling: Missing Link In The Analytic Process" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the ISA's 50th ANNUAL CONVENTION "EXPLORING THE PAST, ANTICIPATING THE FUTURE", New York Marriott Marquis, NEW YORK CITY, NY, USA Online <PDF>. 2014-11-30 from http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p313548_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Explicit conceptual modeling (ECM) within intelligence analysis is a topic on which very little specific research has been done, however; when considering the complexity and depth of most intelligence requirements it becomes evident that consideration of this topic is both crucial and long overdue. This study examines what little literature exists on conceptual modeling within the field of intelligence, in addition to discussing relevant studies from other fields that help to shed light on the need for, and value of, incorporating this technique into intelligence analysis. After examining the pertinent literature, an experiment was conducted to test the hypothesis that intelligence analysts who engage in ECM will generate better analytic products, as evaluated by thoroughness of process and accuracy of product, than analysts who do not. However, despite a wealth of literature strongly suggesting that ECM will improve analysis, the results of this study’s experiment did not support that notion. This paper concludes with recommendations for future research, and this author’s opinion regarding the lack of support shown for ECM in this study’s results.


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