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Is it Important to Examine Crime Trends at a Local "Micro" Level?: A Longitudinal Analysis of Block to Block Variability in Crime Trajectories

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Abstract:

Over the last twenty years, the study of ‘place’ has shifted farther down the geographic cone of resolution. Studies at the micro level (i.e., street blocks and addresses) have consistently found crime is strongly concentrated at relatively few “micro" places. A major question that has not been answered in prior research is the degree of block to block variability at this local "micro" level. To answer this question, this research examines both temporal and spatial variation in crime across street blocks in the city of Seattle Washington. This is accomplished by first applying trajectory analysis to establish groups of places that follow similar crime trajectories over 16 years. Second, using a variety of quantitative spatial statistics to establish whether blocks having the same temporal trajectory are collocated spatially or whether there is block to block variation in the temporal patterns of crime. In a surprising number of cases we find that individual street blocks have trajectories which are unrelated to their immediately adjacent streets but more related to surrounding streets in larger geographic areas. This finding of heterogeneity suggests it may be particularly important to examine crime trends at very local geographic levels. At the same time, we also find large areas of relative homogeneity suggesting that macro level influences on crime at the micro level must also be considered. On the policy level our research reinforces the importance of initiatives like Hot Spots Policing that address specific blocks within relatively small areas.
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Name: ASC Annual Meeting
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http://www.asc41.com


Citation:
URL: http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p372192_index.html
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MLA Citation:

Groff, Elizabeth., Weisburd, David. and Yang, Sue Ming. "Is it Important to Examine Crime Trends at a Local "Micro" Level?: A Longitudinal Analysis of Block to Block Variability in Crime Trajectories" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the ASC Annual Meeting, Philadelphia Marriott Downtown, Philadelphia, PA, <Not Available>. 2014-11-28 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p372192_index.html>

APA Citation:

Groff, E. , Weisburd, D. and Yang, S. "Is it Important to Examine Crime Trends at a Local "Micro" Level?: A Longitudinal Analysis of Block to Block Variability in Crime Trajectories" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the ASC Annual Meeting, Philadelphia Marriott Downtown, Philadelphia, PA <Not Available>. 2014-11-28 from http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p372192_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: Over the last twenty years, the study of ‘place’ has shifted farther down the geographic cone of resolution. Studies at the micro level (i.e., street blocks and addresses) have consistently found crime is strongly concentrated at relatively few “micro" places. A major question that has not been answered in prior research is the degree of block to block variability at this local "micro" level. To answer this question, this research examines both temporal and spatial variation in crime across street blocks in the city of Seattle Washington. This is accomplished by first applying trajectory analysis to establish groups of places that follow similar crime trajectories over 16 years. Second, using a variety of quantitative spatial statistics to establish whether blocks having the same temporal trajectory are collocated spatially or whether there is block to block variation in the temporal patterns of crime. In a surprising number of cases we find that individual street blocks have trajectories which are unrelated to their immediately adjacent streets but more related to surrounding streets in larger geographic areas. This finding of heterogeneity suggests it may be particularly important to examine crime trends at very local geographic levels. At the same time, we also find large areas of relative homogeneity suggesting that macro level influences on crime at the micro level must also be considered. On the policy level our research reinforces the importance of initiatives like Hot Spots Policing that address specific blocks within relatively small areas.


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