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Network Protection: A Survival Analysis of Failure in the Drug Trade

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Abstract:

Recent studies on criminal achievement showed that efficient management of one’s criminal network significantly increases criminal earnings. Whether and how an offender’s criminal network help avoiding arrest is still a matter of debate. Conventional wisdom and some theoretical work propose that the smaller the network, the lower the probabilities of being arrested. Yet, these predictions have not been tested empirically. This paper proposes to fill this gap in the literature by examining the role of group size and criminal networks in the length of time drug dealers remain active in the drug trade before getting arrested. We fit a Cox proportional hazard model to “time to failure” data in a sample of 117 male federal inmates from Quebec, Canada. We examine the factors associated with the number of months that offenders were active as drug dealers in the three years preceding their incarceration. The results show that criminal networks are important to take into account when modelling survival: dealers who are embedded in larger networks usually survive longer than others. Other results indicate that offenders with past convictions, those involved supplying and using hard drugs, and those involved in both market and predatory crimes fail earlier than others.
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Name: ASC Annual Meeting
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http://www.asc41.com


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URL: http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p372844_index.html
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MLA Citation:

Bouchard, Martin. "Network Protection: A Survival Analysis of Failure in the Drug Trade" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the ASC Annual Meeting, Philadelphia Marriott Downtown, Philadelphia, PA, Nov 04, 2009 <Not Available>. 2014-07-04 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p372844_index.html>

APA Citation:

Bouchard, M. , 2009-11-04 "Network Protection: A Survival Analysis of Failure in the Drug Trade" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the ASC Annual Meeting, Philadelphia Marriott Downtown, Philadelphia, PA <Not Available>. 2014-07-04 from http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p372844_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Recent studies on criminal achievement showed that efficient management of one’s criminal network significantly increases criminal earnings. Whether and how an offender’s criminal network help avoiding arrest is still a matter of debate. Conventional wisdom and some theoretical work propose that the smaller the network, the lower the probabilities of being arrested. Yet, these predictions have not been tested empirically. This paper proposes to fill this gap in the literature by examining the role of group size and criminal networks in the length of time drug dealers remain active in the drug trade before getting arrested. We fit a Cox proportional hazard model to “time to failure” data in a sample of 117 male federal inmates from Quebec, Canada. We examine the factors associated with the number of months that offenders were active as drug dealers in the three years preceding their incarceration. The results show that criminal networks are important to take into account when modelling survival: dealers who are embedded in larger networks usually survive longer than others. Other results indicate that offenders with past convictions, those involved supplying and using hard drugs, and those involved in both market and predatory crimes fail earlier than others.

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