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Critiquing Measures for Predictive Hot Spot Accuracy: Do the PAI and RRI indicate Hot Spot Accuracy?

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Abstract:

Hot Spot analysis has become a norm for the majority of police departments that use geographic information systems (GIS). However, of the many techniques available the question that has remained is which hot spots technique to use? In an effort to answer that question, two measures of hot spot accuracy have been introduced, the Predictive Accuracy Index (PAI) and the Recapture Rate Index (RRI). These two measures are of particular interest because they consider grouped data, whether at the police beat, census block group, or even census tract (Some of the techniques work directly on the observations themselves).
The aim of this research is to describe the potential pros and cons of relying on these indices as measures of accuracy. To do so, this research will examine how these results change across six crime categories (Commercial Burglary, Homicide, Residential Burglary, Street Crime, Theft from Auto, and Theft of Auto), across six time frames (two weeks, one month, two months, three months, six months, and one year), in several types of geographies (Charlotte, NC, Pittsburgh, PA, Hillsborough County, FL and Lincoln, NE). Additionally, this research will attempt to guide researchers into developing a new probability based index to incorporate the pros of these models while resolving many of the cons.
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Association:
Name: ASC Annual Meeting
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http://www.asc41.com


Citation:
URL: http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p432654_index.html
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MLA Citation:

Hunt, Joel., Wilson, Ronald. and Brown, Timothy. "Critiquing Measures for Predictive Hot Spot Accuracy: Do the PAI and RRI indicate Hot Spot Accuracy?" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the ASC Annual Meeting, San Francisco Marriott, San Francisco, California, <Not Available>. 2014-11-26 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p432654_index.html>

APA Citation:

Hunt, J. , Wilson, R. E. and Brown, T. "Critiquing Measures for Predictive Hot Spot Accuracy: Do the PAI and RRI indicate Hot Spot Accuracy?" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the ASC Annual Meeting, San Francisco Marriott, San Francisco, California <Not Available>. 2014-11-26 from http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p432654_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: Hot Spot analysis has become a norm for the majority of police departments that use geographic information systems (GIS). However, of the many techniques available the question that has remained is which hot spots technique to use? In an effort to answer that question, two measures of hot spot accuracy have been introduced, the Predictive Accuracy Index (PAI) and the Recapture Rate Index (RRI). These two measures are of particular interest because they consider grouped data, whether at the police beat, census block group, or even census tract (Some of the techniques work directly on the observations themselves).
The aim of this research is to describe the potential pros and cons of relying on these indices as measures of accuracy. To do so, this research will examine how these results change across six crime categories (Commercial Burglary, Homicide, Residential Burglary, Street Crime, Theft from Auto, and Theft of Auto), across six time frames (two weeks, one month, two months, three months, six months, and one year), in several types of geographies (Charlotte, NC, Pittsburgh, PA, Hillsborough County, FL and Lincoln, NE). Additionally, this research will attempt to guide researchers into developing a new probability based index to incorporate the pros of these models while resolving many of the cons.


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