Citation

Progress-based versus trend-based projections

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Abstract:

The 2010 Education For All projections by UNESCO for the poorest countries are target-based, that is, certain goals are assumed to be met by a set year and the model calculates what is necessary in order to achieve those targets – how many pupils need to enter school; how many teachers and classrooms are needed; salary costs, construction costs and so forth. This type of projection is appropriate within the setting of the Education for All goals. Another approach to projections is progress-based, that is, future trends that are rooted in past performance. As a comparative exercise to the EFA projections, the EPDC produced a set of alternative projections for the poorest countries, based on historical change in the rate of pupil entry, improvements in retention, pupil teacher ratios, teacher salary growth etcetera. These alternative scenarios show many countries achieving important EFA goals by 2025, but at lower annual costs. The presentation focuses on these results, but also on the more general question of how to make progress-based projections and when it is more appropriate to use target-versus progress-based assumptions.

Author's Keywords:

Education Projections
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Association:
Name: 55th Annual Conference of the Comparative and International Education Society
URL:
http://www.cies.us


Citation:
URL: http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p494115_index.html
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MLA Citation:

Wils, Annababette., Kim, HyeJin., Chaluda, Ania. and Omoeva, Carina. "Progress-based versus trend-based projections" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the 55th Annual Conference of the Comparative and International Education Society, Fairmont Le Reine Elizabeth, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, <Not Available>. 2014-11-26 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p494115_index.html>

APA Citation:

Wils, A. , Kim, H. , Chaluda, A. and Omoeva, C. "Progress-based versus trend-based projections" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the 55th Annual Conference of the Comparative and International Education Society, Fairmont Le Reine Elizabeth, Montreal, Quebec, Canada <Not Available>. 2014-11-26 from http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p494115_index.html

Publication Type: Panel Paper
Abstract: The 2010 Education For All projections by UNESCO for the poorest countries are target-based, that is, certain goals are assumed to be met by a set year and the model calculates what is necessary in order to achieve those targets – how many pupils need to enter school; how many teachers and classrooms are needed; salary costs, construction costs and so forth. This type of projection is appropriate within the setting of the Education for All goals. Another approach to projections is progress-based, that is, future trends that are rooted in past performance. As a comparative exercise to the EFA projections, the EPDC produced a set of alternative projections for the poorest countries, based on historical change in the rate of pupil entry, improvements in retention, pupil teacher ratios, teacher salary growth etcetera. These alternative scenarios show many countries achieving important EFA goals by 2025, but at lower annual costs. The presentation focuses on these results, but also on the more general question of how to make progress-based projections and when it is more appropriate to use target-versus progress-based assumptions.


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