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Dynamic Conflict Forecasts: Improving Conflict Predictions Using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging

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Abstract:

Michael D. Ward (Duke University), Jacob Montgomery (Duke University), and Florian Hollenbach (Duke University)


ABSTRACT. Much of the work in political science would greatly benefit if we would be able to
make predictions about the future, this is especially true for the field of international relations.
Yet, making sensible forecasts about the future is extremely hard. In this paper we propose
the use of Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging (EBMA) modified to be applicable to binary
dependent variables. This process combines different statistical component models to increase
the accuracy of out-of-sample forecasts. By using EBMA we combine the strengths of different
component models to generate predictions with higher accuracy. After explaining our modified
approach to EBMA we test the superiority of this process to the individual model out-of-sample
forecasts on monthly data on insurgency in 29 Asian countries. We show that compared to the
individual component models, EBMA increases the accuracy of the out-of-sample forecast on
almost all metrics.

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model (9), forecast (7), predict (6), futur (5), sampl (5), make (5), use (5), out-of-sampl (5), ebma (4), compon (3), polit (3), process (3), maker (3), accuraci (3), much (2), averag (2), modi (2), advanc (2), 1 (2), event (2), combin (2),
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Association:
Name: International Studies Association Annual Conference "Global Governance: Political Authority in Transition"
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http://www.isanet.org


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URL: http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p499628_index.html
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MLA Citation:

Montgomery, Jacob., Ward, Michael. and Hollenbach, Florian. "Dynamic Conflict Forecasts: Improving Conflict Predictions Using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association Annual Conference "Global Governance: Political Authority in Transition", Le Centre Sheraton Montreal Hotel, MONTREAL, QUEBEC, CANADA, Mar 16, 2011 <Not Available>. 2014-09-14 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p499628_index.html>

APA Citation:

Montgomery, J. M., Ward, M. D. and Hollenbach, F. , 2011-03-16 "Dynamic Conflict Forecasts: Improving Conflict Predictions Using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association Annual Conference "Global Governance: Political Authority in Transition", Le Centre Sheraton Montreal Hotel, MONTREAL, QUEBEC, CANADA Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2014-09-14 from http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p499628_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Michael D. Ward (Duke University), Jacob Montgomery (Duke University), and Florian Hollenbach (Duke University)


ABSTRACT. Much of the work in political science would greatly benefit if we would be able to
make predictions about the future, this is especially true for the field of international relations.
Yet, making sensible forecasts about the future is extremely hard. In this paper we propose
the use of Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging (EBMA) modified to be applicable to binary
dependent variables. This process combines different statistical component models to increase
the accuracy of out-of-sample forecasts. By using EBMA we combine the strengths of different
component models to generate predictions with higher accuracy. After explaining our modified
approach to EBMA we test the superiority of this process to the individual model out-of-sample
forecasts on monthly data on insurgency in 29 Asian countries. We show that compared to the
individual component models, EBMA increases the accuracy of the out-of-sample forecast on
almost all metrics.

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Associated Document Available International Studies Association Annual Conference "Global Governance: Political Authority in Transition"
Associated Document Available All Academic Inc.
Associated Document Available Political Research Online

Document Type: application/pdf
Page count: 1
Word count: 393
Text sample:
DYNAMIC CONFLICT FORECAST - IMPROVING CONFLICT PREDICTIONS USING ENSEMBLE BAYESIAN MODEL AVERAGING MICHAEL D. WARD JACOB M. MONTGOMERY AND FLORIAN M. HOLLENBACH A BSTRACT. Much of the work in political science would greatly benefit if we would be able to make predictions about the future this is especially true for the field of international relations. Yet making sensible forecasts about the future is extremely hard. In this paper we propose the use of Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging (EBMA) modified
wave of protests and uprisings in northern Africa and the Middle East is just the latest example of critical political events that are difficult to see in advance. Nonetheless forecasts and out-of-sample predictions not only provide the ultimate test of statistical models Date: March 9 2011. This project was undertaken in the framework of an initiative funded by the Information Processing Technology Office of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency aimed at producing models to provide an Integrated Crisis


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