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A New Intelligence Technique for Analyzing Complex Adaptive Systems: A Case-Based Assessment

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Abstract:

Globalization and the concomitant rise of a multiplicity of new institutions and actors are increasing the complexity of decision-making in international affairs. To answer key questions about the direction, scope, and impact of complex global systems, intelligence specialists—whether they serve a government, international institution, or corporate entity—must understand not only the myriad driving forces and factors, but also the interplay among them in an increasingly interconnected world. These factors have become so numerous, fast moving, and multifaceted that the human mind is quickly overwhelmed. Complexity Science has made recent strides in quantitative approaches to this challenge, but there has been little scholarly work on the application of these advances to intelligence analysis, and nearly all complexity methods demand long lead times and deep technical expertise that make them unwieldy for most intelligence specialists. This paper examines the insights that Complexity Science can offer intelligence analysts and employs a case study approach to assess the potential utility of a new technique, Complexity Manager, which was developed by Richards J. Heuer, Jr., to help intelligence specialists understand the fundamental drivers and dynamics that lie at the roots of complex adaptive systems.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

complex (97), variabl (66), system (53), actor (50), intellig (43), impact (41), analyst (33), analysi (31), ukrain (31), behavior (30), interact (30), adapt (28), work (27), manag (27), agent (27), matrix (26), kuchma (26), problem (26), ukrainian (25), dynam (25), factor (23),

Author's Keywords:

intelligence analysis, complexity, complex adaptive systems, analysis, intelligence, intelligence studies
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Association:
Name: International Studies Association Annual Conference "Global Governance: Political Authority in Transition"
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http://www.isanet.org


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URL: http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p500049_index.html
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MLA Citation:

Beebe, Sarah. "A New Intelligence Technique for Analyzing Complex Adaptive Systems: A Case-Based Assessment" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association Annual Conference "Global Governance: Political Authority in Transition", Le Centre Sheraton Montreal Hotel, MONTREAL, QUEBEC, CANADA, Mar 16, 2011 <Not Available>. 2014-11-26 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p500049_index.html>

APA Citation:

Beebe, S. M. , 2011-03-16 "A New Intelligence Technique for Analyzing Complex Adaptive Systems: A Case-Based Assessment" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association Annual Conference "Global Governance: Political Authority in Transition", Le Centre Sheraton Montreal Hotel, MONTREAL, QUEBEC, CANADA Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2014-11-26 from http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p500049_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Globalization and the concomitant rise of a multiplicity of new institutions and actors are increasing the complexity of decision-making in international affairs. To answer key questions about the direction, scope, and impact of complex global systems, intelligence specialists—whether they serve a government, international institution, or corporate entity—must understand not only the myriad driving forces and factors, but also the interplay among them in an increasingly interconnected world. These factors have become so numerous, fast moving, and multifaceted that the human mind is quickly overwhelmed. Complexity Science has made recent strides in quantitative approaches to this challenge, but there has been little scholarly work on the application of these advances to intelligence analysis, and nearly all complexity methods demand long lead times and deep technical expertise that make them unwieldy for most intelligence specialists. This paper examines the insights that Complexity Science can offer intelligence analysts and employs a case study approach to assess the potential utility of a new technique, Complexity Manager, which was developed by Richards J. Heuer, Jr., to help intelligence specialists understand the fundamental drivers and dynamics that lie at the roots of complex adaptive systems.


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