Citation

Taking Time Seriously: Delayed Effects of Economic Development on Democracy, 1960-2010

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Abstract:

The author analyzes the time component in the relationship between economic development and democracy. The review of the relevant literature shows that no systematic analysis of lags has been performed. Furthermore, the mainstream analysis shows disconnect between the theory and empirical studies concerning economy-democracy relationship. Four hypotheses are derived regarding the timing of the effects of economic development on political democracy. A series of models are estimated and several distributions of the lagged effects are constructed and analyzed. The author finds that not only lagged effects have a better theoretical fit, but they also produce greater coefficients as compared to the instantaneous effects. In addition, measuring economic performance in moving averages as opposed to the conventional single-year measurement produces empirically superior models that have fewer non-significant results. The author calls for systematic analyses of the lagged effects of economic development, as well as other predictors in quantitative studies of democracy.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

democraci (167), year (138), polit (125), effect (111), econom (108), develop (88), time (84), averag (79), gdp (73), lag (71), measur (63), economi (59), term (47), perform (43), democrat (40), model (40), countri (35), long (35), figur (33), level (33), use (30),
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Association:
Name: Pacific Sociological Association Annual Meeting
URL:
http://www.pacificsoc.org


Citation:
URL: http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p708381_index.html
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MLA Citation:

Balaev, Mikhail. "Taking Time Seriously: Delayed Effects of Economic Development on Democracy, 1960-2010" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Pacific Sociological Association Annual Meeting, Marriott Downtown Waterfront, Portland, Oregon, Mar 27, 2014 <Not Available>. 2014-12-10 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p708381_index.html>

APA Citation:

Balaev, M. , 2014-03-27 "Taking Time Seriously: Delayed Effects of Economic Development on Democracy, 1960-2010" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Pacific Sociological Association Annual Meeting, Marriott Downtown Waterfront, Portland, Oregon Online <PDF>. 2014-12-10 from http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p708381_index.html

Publication Type: Formal research paper presentation
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: The author analyzes the time component in the relationship between economic development and democracy. The review of the relevant literature shows that no systematic analysis of lags has been performed. Furthermore, the mainstream analysis shows disconnect between the theory and empirical studies concerning economy-democracy relationship. Four hypotheses are derived regarding the timing of the effects of economic development on political democracy. A series of models are estimated and several distributions of the lagged effects are constructed and analyzed. The author finds that not only lagged effects have a better theoretical fit, but they also produce greater coefficients as compared to the instantaneous effects. In addition, measuring economic performance in moving averages as opposed to the conventional single-year measurement produces empirically superior models that have fewer non-significant results. The author calls for systematic analyses of the lagged effects of economic development, as well as other predictors in quantitative studies of democracy.


Similar Titles:
The Differences in the Effect of Economic Globalization between Developing and Developed Countries.

Social equality and democracy in times of economic crisis: How European economic governance affects perceptions of social cohesion and political support


 
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