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2005 - International Studies Association Pages: 34 pages || Words: 13715 words || 
1. Tir, Jaroslav. "Keeping the Peace After Secessions: Territorial Conflicts Between Rump and Secessionist States" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Hilton Hawaiian Village, Honolulu, Hawaii, Feb 22, 2005 <Not Available>. 2020-02-24 <>
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: A secession occurs when a homeland region of a country becomes its own, new state (e.g. Eritrea), leaving behind the rump state (e.g. Ethiopia). Extant ethnic secession literature either advocates or warns against secessions as a means for dealing with inter-ethnic conflict, but does not provide an explanation of why some secessions are followed by international-level uses of force to redraw the secession-created boundary (e.g. Ethiopia-Eritrea) while others are not (e.g. Sweden-Norway). We fill this gap by relying on a territorial dispute explanation of post-secession armed conflict over land. In a model that applies to ethnic and non-ethnic cases alike, we argue that the leader of the rump state is motivated to use force by the benefits of retaking the land lost to the secessionist state, while the secessionist state's leader is motivated by the benefits of acquiring even more land. The secession process (i.e. peaceful or violent) conditions whether these desires are turned into the use of force. The results - based on the examination of the aftermath of all 20th century secessions - are highly supportive of the model. They reveal that intangibly- (e.g. ethnically-) based territorial disputes play a much greater role in conflict onset than do tangibly- (e.g. economically- or strategically-) based territorial disputes and that - despite the ethnic secession literature's predictions to the contrary - peaceful secessions lead to peaceful relations. The findings provide policymakers with new knowledge as to whether and when secessions are appropriate conflict management tools.

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