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2005 - American Political Science Association Pages: 22 pages || Words: 5452 words || 
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1. Haerpfer, Christian. "Support for Democracy and Authoritarian Regimes in Russia and the CIS, 1992-2002" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC, Sep 01, 2005 <Not Available>. 2019-11-22 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p41862_index.html>
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Support for Democracy and Authoritarian Regimes in Russia and the CIS, 1992-2002


Christian W.Haerpfer

Woodrow Wilson Center, Washington, DC (USA) &
University of Aberdeen (UK)


Paper presented at the 2005 APSA Annual Meeting
September 1-4, Washington, DC


ABSTRACT

This paper is analyzing three core elements of political change in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in the period after the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991. It is comparing the political transformations in these eight countries along the continuum between authoritarian regimes, semi-democratic as well as democratic regimes. The conceptual framework of this paper is based on the concept of political support of David Easton (Easton 1975) and its further development by Pippa Norris (Norris 1999) and Hans-Dieter Klingemann (Klingemann 1999) on the one hand and the concept of a ‘realist’ form of political support, presented by Richard Rose, William Mishler and the author (Rose, T.Mishler et al. 1998) on the other. This paper is analyzing the political support for the current regime in Russia and seven other post-Soviet countries at the more specific level 3 (regime performance) as well as the political support for democracy as an ideal form of government in form of normative principles at the more diffuse level 2 (regime principles) within the underlying conceptual framework of political support for democracy. The paper is hence analyzing two phenomena of political support for democratic regimes, the support for the current regime and the support for democracy as a set of idealist principles and core topics for democratic governance. The third topic of this paper is the analysis of political support for non-democratic regimes as alternatives to democratic governance on the territories of the former Soviet Union.

The main conclusion of this paper is that, despite frequent pessimistic assumptions in the literature about the bleak future for democracy in Russia and many countries of the former Soviet Union, the mass public support for democracy as best form of government at the level of regime principles is encompassing an absolute majority of post-Soviet citizens in Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia and Belarus as well as a relative majority of the Russian citizens. This political support for democracy is growing over time between 1996 and 2000 in Russia and Ukraine and staying at a high level in Belarus.

The second important finding of this paper is that normative support for democracy is strongly associated with five values and attitudes such as democracy is good for the macro-economy, democracy produces fast and good decisions, the rejection of political violence and support for a functioning market economy with higher income differentials as well as full privatization of the economy. Persons in the emerging middle classes tend to favor democracy as form of government because of this close link with an emerging market economy.

The third main result of this study is that the political support for the current regimes is declining between 1992 and 2002 and in some cases like Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova and Armenia collapsing. This collapse of public support for the current political regime contributed to the ‘revolutions’ in Georgia and Ukraine. Between 25 and 30 per cent of the national electorates support the current regime in Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in 2002, which indicates the weakness of political legitimacy of these political systems.

The fourth main finding of the paper is that support for the macro-economy is the most important influence regarding support for the current regime. The second predictor of support for the current regime has been identified as trust in institutions of government, with other words, successful institution-building in a transforming society. The third influence on support for the current regime has been a successful micro-economy, household with good economic living conditions. This shows the crucial importance of the macro-economy as well –albeit to a lesser degree- of the micro-economy for public political support of a given political regime.

The fifth core finding of the paper is that the share of supporters for authoritarian regimes in Russia and the other post-Soviet countries decreased from about one third of the whole post-Soviet general public in 1996 to one fifth in 2002. This again is an indication of a general erosion of authoritarianism in the territories of the former Soviet Union at the level of the general electorate. The main predictors of support for authoritarian regimes have been low levels of human capital, support for the Communist political regime, psycho-social transition stress as well as being a loser of micro-economic transition.

2005 - American Political Science Association Pages: 15 pages || Words: 4758 words || 
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2. Thomsen, Soren. "Ecological Inference for large tables - The 1992 presidential vote in California" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC, Sep 01, 2005 <Not Available>. 2019-11-22 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p41569_index.html>
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: With the latent structure method for ecological inference the estimation of individual-level tables for the association between social categories and voting behavior seems quite valid, even for large tables, when one has access to data from many geographical units on a low level of aggregation. This is illustrated in this article for the 1992 presidential vote in California with voting data and social data about race, education and age from 5,532 census tracts. Interesting findings concern especially the estimation of turnout within different social groups and the fact that the overall estimates are not much affected by making separate estimates within homogenous political regions or within counties.

2003 - American Sociological Association Pages: 17 pages || Words: 3974 words || 
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3. Swaroop, Sapna. and Heflin, Colleen. "What About Arabs? White and Black Americans' Attitudes Toward Arab Americans in Detroit in 1992" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Sociological Association, Atlanta Hilton Hotel, Atlanta, GA, Aug 16, 2003 Online <.PDF>. 2019-11-22 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p107713_index.html>
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: In this paper, we explore the extent to which Detroit-area Black and White Americans endorsed or rejected stereotypes of Arab Americans in 1992 to assess how Arab Americans fit into the current racial hierarchy in the United States. We assess respondents' rankings of Arabs vis-à-vis other racial groups (e.g. how Whites rank Arabs, compared to how they rank Blacks, compared to how they rank themselves) on a seven-point scale for each of five dimensions: wealth, intelligence, work ethic, compatibility with others, and ability to speak English. In addition, we conduct multivariate analyses to estimate the independent effect of race after considering demographic and socioeconomic variables that differ for Whites and Blacks. We find that for each stereotype, White Americans view themselves most positively, Arab Americans more negatively than whites view themselves, and Black Americans most negatively. The patterns for Black Americans, however, are more complex. Arab Americans are between Whites and Blacks in terms of wealth and work ethic, but fall behind both White and Black Americans in their intelligence and ability to speak English. White and Arab Americans are equally difficult to get along with. Multivariate analyses show that even after accounting for demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, Blacks are still more likely than Whites to classify Arab Americans as wealthy, as difficult to get along with, and as speaking English poorly. Our future research plans include an investigation of whether the amount of contact that Black and White Americans have with Arab Americans affects their attitudes toward this group.

2006 - American Sociological Association Pages: 26 pages || Words: 6747 words || 
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4. Hala, Nicole. "Shifting Boundaries of Czechoslovakia, 1983 - 1992" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Sociological Association, Montreal Convention Center, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, Aug 11, 2006 Online <PDF>. 2019-11-22 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p105456_index.html>
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: While many view postcommunist nationalism as a return to primordial identities, the record of public protest in Czechoslovakia 1983 – 1992 reveals significant variation in national identity claims. The same political actors claimed different identities at different points in time. Collective claims on behalf of various nations -- Czech, Slovak, Czechoslovak, Moravian – rose and fell over the course of the decade. How the nation was defined varied and changed. I treat the nation as a “categorical relation” between a political community and others beyond its boundaries, its boundaries shaped by and shaping ongoing political interaction, among polity members, challengers, and external actors. Most public national identity claims are made in the course of routine institutional politics and support taken-for-granted boundaries of national citizenship. Occasionally, however, collective national identity claims are contentious, made in protest events that happen outside institutional channels, in demonstrations, rallies, and other public displays. Episodes of such claim making sometimes begin to transform accepted national boundaries. They create new “categorical pairs,” constituted by the nation and some other category. Recurrence and change in the categorical pairs articulated in protest events in Czechoslovakia from 1983 – 1992 tell a story about how nations are constructed. Importantly, such construction features common dynamics, across different national categories and regime types. This paper will specify how two causal mechanisms repeatedly figure in national identity politics: category formation and attribution of threat/opportunity.

2006 - International Studies Association Words: 187 words || 
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5. Tuman, John., Strand, Jonathan. and Emmert, Craig. "In the Shadow of U.S. Hegemony? A Study of Japanese ODA to 105 Recipient Countries, 1992-2003" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Town & Country Resort and Convention Center, San Diego, California, USA, Mar 22, 2006 <Not Available>. 2019-11-22 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p99592_index.html>
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: Recent scholarship has shown little consensus regarding the underlying motives of Japan's ODA policy. A number of studies have focused on the role of foreign pressure, brought principally by the U.S., on Japan. Others argue that ODA policy continues to reflect the predominance of Japan's mercantilist interests. Pointing to recent changes in Japan's civil society and the 1992 ODA Charter, other analysts cite the growing effect of non-governmental organizations in promoting humanitarian goals in aid policy. In this paper we test competing hypotheses regarding the distribution of Japan's ODA to developing and transition economies since the end of the Cold War. Utilizing a pooled cross-sectional times-series data set, we examine the influence humanitarianism, Japan's mercantilist interests, and Japan's responsiveness to U.S. strategic interests (i.e., gaiatsu). Several new variables not in prior studies are defined, including the effects of the ODA charter and multiple measures of U.S. strategic interests. The effects of the independent variables are estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS) with panel corrected standard errors with sensitivity analysis examining alternative estimation techniques (e.g., pooled tobit, etc.). We also perform tests to assess the degree of endogeneity.

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