Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished ManuscriptAbstract: Colombia, a country beset by ongoing guerilla warfare, drug trafficking, and terrorism, has long had Latin Americas highest levels of homicides and human rights violations. In 2002 Colombia began an effort to demobilize paramilitaries that has led over 30,000 former combatants to return to civilian life since the beginning of 2003. While this effort has achieved some success in reducing violence in urban areas, many have criticized the demobilization as a sop to the right that has had little wider effect on the conflict in the country. This paper seeks to assess the impact of the demobilization process on violent crime and political violence in Colombia. To do so, the study analyzes official data on homicides as a proxy for violent crime- and conflict-related events (including kidnappings) for the period 2000-2006, using an Interrupted Time Series Analysis (ARIMA) procedure. In addition, national, departmental, and municipal level data will be used to evaluate the effect of the demobilization process on regional violence trends during the study period.
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished ManuscriptReview Method: Peer ReviewedAbstract: The prevalence of tobacco use in U.S. population was highest among young adults aged 18 to 24, with a rate of 27.9 percent- in 1999. Young adult period is a critical time for initiating or stopping tobacco use because this period may involve a transition from occasional tobacco users to development of nicotine dependence. Among individuals who smoke as young adults, 95 percent- eventually become regular, daily smokers. However, a small group of smokers maintain intermittent or low rates of smoking without evidencing nicotine dependence, who are called chippers. Chippers are operationalized as smokers who smoke 1 to 5 cigarettes per day on at least 4 days per week. Previous studies that have investigated chippers have excluded those under age of 23 years. As a result, the differences between regular smokers and chippers in the young adults population are currently unknown. Hence, this paper aims to analyze the demographic differences between these two groups. While numerous studies have been conducted on tobacco use patterns among adolescents and adults in general, limited focus has been given to the young adults group. Additional research is essential before effective interventions can be developed. This paper examines the patterns of tobacco use in young adults in terms of prevalence rate, frequency of use, types of tobacco products used, and chipping, characterized by gender, ethnicity, education, region and income. Last but not least, studies shown that 80 percent- to 90 percent- of the adults with alcohol dependence smoke cigarettes, and that higher rate of alcohol consumption in adolescents is the best predictor of amount smoked. Although many studies have found a significant association between alcohol consumption and cigarette smoking in young adults, disparity in alcohol use between regular smokers and chippers has not been investigated. This paper will compare the level of alcohol consumption between these two groups.
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished ManuscriptReview Method: Peer ReviewedAbstract: It has long been documented that there is a relationship between survey response and topic salience, namely that individuals responding to a survey are likely to find the survey topic more salient than nonrespondents. For election surveys, nonresponse resulting from lack of salience can impact findings because respondents are generally more educated and politically involved; however, as interest in political campaigns increases over the course of an election, this type of nonresponse theoretically should decline. Using data from the 2000 National Annenberg Election Survey (NAES), which was conducted nearly continuously between December 14, 1999 and January 19, 2001, this study investigates the issue of nonresponse in a RDD telephone survey across the 2000 election cycle. The NAES employed a rolling cross sectional design, whereby each day represents a simple random sample cross section of respondents. The NAES made efforts to increase response rates by calling potential respondents back a maximum of eighteen times and using refusal conversions. This study investigates the representativeness of the sample over time by comparing respondents to the Current Population Survey estimates each month over time. Other variables investigated as explaining differences in survey representativeness over time include: temperature, sample size, and number of dials required to reach the respondent.
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished ManuscriptReview Method: Peer ReviewedAbstract: While correlations between candidate perceived viability and favorability ratings over time were demonstrated for Bush and McCain in 2000 (Romer, 2004; Capturing Campaign Dynamics: The National Annenberg Election Survey), evidence of perceived viability as a causal influence (e.g., Granger, 1969) on favorability could not be established with a vector autoregressive, or VAR(1) structure. The VAR(1) models estimated the influence the previous days perceived viability and favorability ratings on contemporaneous levels of each variable, while controlling for the contemporaneous correlation between them.
The present research tests for higher order VAR structures (i.e., a greater number of lagged time periods) in the perceived viability and favorability measures from The National Annenberg Election Survey, using an adstock, or distributed lag, modeling approach employed in advertising ROI and marketing mix optimization models (Broadbent, 1986; Accountable Advertising). The effect and impact of 2 key variables: voter intention and media/ad consumption are also examined.
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished ManuscriptReview Method: Peer ReviewedAbstract: Elections provide the only mechanism available to most voters for exerting influence on public policy, and policy issues are among the limited set of factors over which candidates have direct control. In this paper we consider the impact of issues in the 2000 U.S. presidential election. In 2000, consistent with earlier results, people judged candidates based on direction, not distance. Public opinion during the campaign was generally approving of an activist role for the federal government, a situation typically favorable to the Democratic Party and Al Gore. In the 2000 election, however - way before the horror of 9/11/01 - George Bush and Dick Cheney succeeded in making many Americans think about defense, and succeeded in positioning themselves on the strong defense side of the defense policy divide. They also championed an across-the-board tax cut. Gore successfully positioned himself on many issues. But he failed to get people to see the election as a contest in which those issues were central. In the end, the issue dynamic of the campaign made George Bush surprisingly competitive.