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2008 - ISA's 49th ANNUAL CONVENTION, BRIDGING MULTIPLE DIVIDES Pages: 72 pages || Words: 21904 words || 
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1. Meiser, Jeffrey. "The Rhetoric and Reality of Civil War: From the American Civil War to the Iraq Civil War and Back Again" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the ISA's 49th ANNUAL CONVENTION, BRIDGING MULTIPLE DIVIDES, Hilton San Francisco, SAN FRANCISCO, CA, USA, Mar 26, 2008 Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2019-08-19 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p253894_index.html>
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: The variety and frequency of analogical reasoning in the public discourse surrounding the invasion of Iraq is remarkable. Perhaps most remarkable is the comparison that has been made between the U.S. Civil War and the Iraq civil war. The purposes of this paper are to show why the American Civil War analogy was deployed by advocates of “staying the course” in Iraq, consider what effect this discursive strategy may have had on American policy in Iraq, and finally to compare the U.S. Civil War and Iraq civil war using an analytical framework derived from civil war theory. In moving toward achieving these goals, I employ cognitive and constructivist theories on the role of ideas in foreign policy, as well as theories of the causes of civil wars. The central findings have both academic and policy relevance. First, several Bush administration officials and certain public intellectuals have used the American Civil War analogy (and other rhetorical devices) to shape policy in the short-run and American collective identity in the long-run. Second, the U.S. Civil War analogy does not provide useful guidance for American policy in Iraq. Policy makers and analysts should not allow the memory of the American experience with internal conflict affect their understanding of current and future civil wars. Third, current theories of internal war can provide a useful lens for understanding both ‘old’ and ‘new’ civil wars, but are much better suited to explaining recent civil wars. This finding suggests that unlike international relations theory, internal war theories are time-bound. It is striking that modern theories of internal war cannot explain one of the most important civil wars of the past 200 years.

2005 - International Studies Association Pages: 35 pages || Words: 11456 words || 
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2. Toft, Monica. "Population Shifts and Civil War: A Test of Power Transition Theory Population Shifts and Civil War: A Test of Power Transition Theory Population Shifts and Civil War" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Hilton Hawaiian Village, Honolulu, Hawaii, Mar 05, 2005 <Not Available>. 2019-08-19 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p72013_index.html>
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: This paper presents a test of elements of Power Transition Theory (PTT) through an examination of types of demographic transitions against civil war. It divides population transitions into nine types and, from PTT logic, derives testable hypotheses. It also tests elements of PTT's rival, Balance of Power Theory (BPT). Although the logic of PTT seems appropriate to testing at the substate level, the results are mixed. Most states plagued by ethnic civil wars have stable populations (i.e. no transitions), yet three types of transitions stand out. Even here, however, PTT predicts violence in only one of these three types of transitions. BPT fares a bit better.

2012 - Southern Political Science Association Pages: unavailable || Words: 13198 words || 
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3. Wu, Jun-deh. "Repression, Civil Society, and Civil War: The Interaction between Motive and Resource" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, Hotel InterContinental, New Orleans, Louisiana, Jan 12, 2012 Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2019-08-19 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p544336_index.html>
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: The research question of this paper is that under what conditions, civil war is more likely to happen in a country. Two factors are considered as the determinants of civil war occurrence in the literature. One is a motive, and the other is resources. Motives give citizens reasons to rise while resources represent the capacity of a society to challenge the state. However, each of them is necessary condition, not sufficient condition. This paper argues that both of them are required in the occurrence of civil war, and there should be an interaction effect between motive and resource.

Specifically, this paper posits that state repression is an important source of motives, and civil society provides the rebel groups with resources. State repression enhances grievances, lowers the government’s legitimacy, and radicalizes the reformers, so that it can raise the revolutionary potential of a society. On the other hand, voluntary associations endow the society with human and material resources, are the reservoir of rebel groups, discover and train potential opposition leaders, and serve as the classroom of democracy. Therefore, civil society plays a critical role in civil war occurrence.

To test the hypotheses, a statistical analysis is conducted. Repression is measured by the CIRI index. Civil society is operationalized using a proxy variable (country participation in international non-governmental organizations). The dependent variable is civil war onset. Time-series cross-section data are analyzed with an interaction model.

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