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2006 - American Sociological Association Pages: 3 pages || Words: 723 words || 
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1. Szafran, Robert. "Poster 08. Growth in a Time of Decline: How Local Population Growth Masks Regional Decline" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Sociological Association, Montreal Convention Center, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, Aug 11, 2006 Online <PDF>. 2019-06-25 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p96912_index.html>
Publication Type: Poster
Abstract: Over one-fifth of the counties in the United States experienced population decline between 1990 and 2000. Many of the individuals in those counties in 2000, however, would have correctly described the place where they lived as having grown in population size during the 1990s. This apparent contradiction arises from the fact that population patterns are not uniform within a county. Some places within a county may be experiencing net in-migration while others within the same county are marked by net out-migration. Some areas within a county may have younger populations resulting in more births than deaths while other areas with older populations may have an excess of deaths over births. It is an ecological fallacy too-often-made to assume that population changes at the macro-level must necessarily result in similar changes at the micro-level. Indeed, in some counties with declining populations the majority of the residents were living in places that had grown during the decade. This poster presentation will summarize the population changes at the local level that took place in the 677 U.S. counties that lost population during the 1990s. In doing so, it will explain why population experiences at the local level may so often contradict patterns occurring at the regional level.

2017 - American Society of Criminology Words: 203 words || 
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2. Rezey, Maibeth. "The Uniqueness of Macro-Level Trends in Child Victimization: Do Declines in Child Victimization Mirror Declines in Violent Crime More Generally?" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Society of Criminology, Philadelphia Marriott Downtown, Philadelphia, PA, <Not Available>. 2019-06-25 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p1265483_index.html>
Publication Type: Individual Paper
Abstract: Arguments made about why violent crime declined in the 1990s have largely been limited to findings from Uniform Crime Report (UCR) and National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) data. Studies using these consistently collected official data sources are essential to understanding long- and short-term trends in violent crime rates (e.g., homicide, robbery, aggravated assault). However, crimes against children have been less prominent in crime trends research. Children are victims of lethal and nonlethal violent crimes (the latter frequently referred to as child abuse), as well as a host of other child maltreatment-type offenses (i.e., caretaker initiated child physical abuse, child sexual abuse, and child neglect) that may not be captured in the UCR or NCVS. This study examines the strength of the relationship between various trends in child victimization (including child maltreatment) and trends in other types of violent crime at the national level. Using state-level cross-sectional/time series data, this study also empirically tests a number of competing hypotheses about the decline in violent crime with respect to rates of child physical abuse vs. physical assault, child sexual abuse vs. rape/sexual assault, and child homicide vs. total homicide in an attempt to understand the mechanisms by which declining trends differ for adults and children.

2005 - American Political Science Association Pages: 35 pages || Words: 11431 words || 
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3. Ansolabehere, Stephen. "The Decline of Competition in U.S. Primary Elections, 1908-2004" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC, Sep 01, 2005 <Not Available>. 2019-06-25 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p42710_index.html>
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Primary elections have been a prominent feature of U.S. politics for the past century. However, surprisingly little is known about how primaries have operated over time. Except for the most recent decades, we do not even know simple facts such as how many primaries were contested, how competitive the constested races were, and how these patterns varied across states, offices, and time. This is mainly because of data availability. To gain greater insight into the functioning of primaries, we have constructed a comprehensive data set of primary election returns. The data set covers all statewide executive and federal offices for all states and almost all years that primaries have been in operation. We find that primaries were an important source of electoral competition during the first 30-40 years following their introduction, both in open-seat contests and in incumbent-challenger races. This is no longer the case, however, except in open-seat contests, where competition remains robust.

2005 - American Political Science Association Pages: 41 pages || Words: 16368 words || 
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4. Murphy, Andrew. "The Rhetoric of War and Decline: Thucydides and Mencius" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC, Sep 01, 2005 <Not Available>. 2019-06-25 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p39740_index.html>
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Separated not only by thousands of miles but also by several hundred years, Thucydides and Mencius might not, at first glance, appear readily comparable, either stylistically or substantively. Thucydides put forward a famously skeptical and straightforward narrative of the Peloponnesian War, one that emphasized the role played by fear, pride, and Athenian thumos in Athen’s rise as well as its shocking fall from power in the late 4th-century B.C.E. Mencius, revered only behind the Master himself in the Confucian tradition, wrote during China’s Warring States period (mid-3rd century B.C.E.) and dealt largely in what we might call ethical anthropology, or moral psychology, stressing essential human goodness and the importance of self-cultivation, filial piety, and benevolence. The hard-boiled realism of the historian and the often-cryptic utterances of the sage seem, on first glance, widely divergent.
Yet both Thucydides and Mencius offer keen observations of human behavior in times of war and civil strife, and identify war as somehow implicated in a process of moral-political decline in their own times. Each sought to inform his contemporaries of the risks in turning away from their communities’ foundational virtues and values, to cast those contemporaries’ eyes to the past, and to reform their morals by reminding them of the wisdom inherent in the past histories of their own communities.

2006 - American Political Science Association Words: unavailable || 
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5. Edy, Jill. "Conventional Wisdom: Putting Declining Party Convention Ratings into Context" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott, Loews Philadelphia, and the Pennsylvania Convention Center, Philadelphia, PA, <Not Available>. 2019-06-25 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p153144_index.html>
Publication Type: Proceeding

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