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2005 - American Association For Public Opinion Association Words: 306 words || 
1. Groves, Robert M.., Lepkowski, Jim., VanHoewyk, John. and Schulz, Paul. "Real-Time Propensity Models for Responsive Survey Design and Post-Survey Adjustment Through Propensity Models: Comparisons of Model Fit and Model Specification" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Association For Public Opinion Association, Fontainebleau Resort, Miami Beach, FL, <Not Available>. 2018-03-19 <>
Publication Type: Paper/Poster Proposal
Abstract: The increasing uncertainty of the US public’s reaction to survey requests has led to heightened awareness of the interplay of costs, nonresponse rates, and nonresponse errors in large scale household surveys. Groves and Heeringa (2004) outline an approach to survey design that directs orderly changes to key features of the recruitment protocol of a survey, based on real-time analysis of the incoming survey data. These so-called “responsive designs” identify a set of alternative key statistics, callback alternatives, and incentive options prior to the start of the data collection. Cost and error-related models are measured during the early phases of a survey, and then used to determine final design features, more nearly cost-optimal. In short, these designs adapt or respond to real-time information about the performance of the survey. A key tool in this responsive process is the use of propensity models on the sample case level, estimating the probability that an active case will be interviewed.

Propensity models are also used after the survey data collection period has been completed. These propensity models are often used to form weighting class adjustments in an attempt to reduce unit nonresponse error (Little, 1982). These models identify groups that have higher or lower likelihood of being measured, based on all knowledge available at the end of the data collection.

This paper addresses whether the predictors of propensity during data collection heavily overlap those available at the end of the data collection period. It relates this analysis to efforts during the data collection to attempt to achieve the most cost efficient acquisition of completed cases. It then studies how the estimated propensities of cases correlate with key statistics in the survey, among respondents. Conclusions are drawn about the relative utility of observational and process data predictors for response propensity in adjustment models.

2011 - ASC Annual Meeting Words: 195 words || 
2. Kim, Ha-neul. and Min, Suhong. "North Korean Defectors’ Fear of Crime: Test of Sub-Cultural Model, Community Policing Model, Vulnerability Model, and Victimization Model" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the ASC Annual Meeting, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC, <Not Available>. 2018-03-19 <>
Publication Type: Roundtable Paper
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to examine the North Korean defectors’ fear of crime with 4 theoretical models: sub-cultural diversity model, community policing model, vulnerability model, and victimization model. This study utilizes survey data collected from 214 North Korean defectors who are over 20 years old living in South Korea. Two types of fear of crime, i.e., general and specific measures, are tested. Research findings show that perceived risk of victimization is a significant factor in both measures of fear of crime. That is, defectors who perceive higher risk of victimization show higher level of fear of crime. In addition, when general measure of fear of crime is tested, gender and victimization experiences are turned out to be significant factors. Women defectors’ fear of crime is higher than that of men’s; and unexpectedly, defectors who experienced victimization show lower level of fear of crime.
On the other hand, when specific measure of fear of crime is tested, findings show that difficulties in cultural adjustment is another significant factor. Defectors who experience cultural difficulties in South Korea show higher level of fear of crime. Research findings are interpreted and discussed from the theoretical perspectives.

2007 - NCA 93rd Annual Convention Pages: 37 pages || Words: 8047 words || 
3. Chung, Sungeun. "Mathematical Models of Message Discrepancy: Previous Models Analyzed and a New Model Proposed" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the NCA 93rd Annual Convention, TBA, Chicago, IL, Nov 15, 2007 Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2018-03-19 <>
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: This study is a theoretical review about message discrepancy and a proposal of a new model of message discrepancy. This study analyzed four mathematical models of message discrepancy (Anderson & Hovland, 1957; Fink, Kaplowitz, & Bauer, 1983; Fishbein & Ajzen,1975; Laroche, 1977). A new mathematical model was proposed by solving a differential equation that derived from on a biological metaphor and existing models. A new model predicts a monotonically increasing function of message discrepancy.

2010 - Theory vs. Policy? Connecting Scholars and Practitioners Words: 40 words || 
4. Brecke, Peter. "Institutional Mechanisms for Integrated Social Assessment Models: Applying the Lessons from IPCC Climate Modeling to Social Global Models" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Theory vs. Policy? Connecting Scholars and Practitioners, New Orleans Hilton Riverside Hotel, The Loews New Orleans Hotel, New Orleans, LA, Feb 17, 2010 <Not Available>. 2018-03-19 <>
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: The combination of the emergence of a set of serious global-scale challenges such as climate change, biodiversity loss, and fisheries depletion, and the very real problem that solutions to address one challenge can cause problems in another arena such as

2014 - Comparative and International Education Society Annual Conference Words: 596 words || 
5. Yokozeki, Yumiko. "Modeling and simulation in education – political economy of the model – the education bottleneck analysis in western and central Africa" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Comparative and International Education Society Annual Conference, Sheraton Centre Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Mar 10, 2014 <Not Available>. 2018-03-19 <>
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: The paper examines the process and results of the formulation and the use of an analytical model for the education sector in western and southern Africa. The study looks at the process of formulation and the use of the model in 17 countries in the region in the last three years. From the empirical evidence, the study attempts to make a few modest recommendations on future use of such models in a development context.

In many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, costing and simulation models are often required by development aid. Such models tend to be complicated, sophisticated and expert-driven. The paper examines the recent attempt of formulating a simple model to identify major challenges/bottlenecks in the education sector, from the service coverage perspectives with clear determinants in supply, demand and quality. This model, education bottleneck analysis, was first modified from the existing health intervention model (MBB- Marginal Budgeting for Bottlenecks) which has been widely used since 1990s. The process required us to make a number of trial and error, but finally a breakthrough was made by going back to the original study published in 1978 where the concept of the health model was based. Then the education model evolved fast, taking advantage of the progress made in the health sector model.
The process of formulating the model was more political than academic in its nature. The first motive was to catch up with the health sector within the organization to create an equity-focused analysis in education. The competition soon became collaboration between the two sectors in the organization with increased discussion. The model became useful with a number of suggestions and advice made by the health sector. The process also facilitated the understanding between the two sectors on the issue of equity.

The model is simple. The first part is a bar chart graph showing the bottlenecks in the education system. The chart is made from the available statistics in the country and requires minimum calculation. Then the second part is a discussion to examine the identified bottlenecks from the graphic, and to determine the causes and solutions of these bottlenecks. This process is carried out in the form of a workshop.

The model’s participatory manner created an unexpected advantage of increasing evidence-based policy dialogue in education. The workshop is often very interactive. Statistical evidences force the participants to adhere to the facts and be more practical than theoretical.

The simple bar chart graphs also proved effective in policy dialogue with the Ministers and other high level colleagues. The simple and visual presentation makes the discussion clear, focused and evidence-based.

The model has some challenges in its precision in time-related factors. When shared with academic colleagues, the model attracted a number of criticisms. Some opinions and recommendations were useful in improving the model, but others were not taken at the time of formulation to preserve the model’s simplicity. A trade-off between the simplicity and accuracy was evident.

Another major challenge is statistical data which have challenge in timeliness, reliability and validity. Data from the decentralized levels are also problematic. However, the paper argues that the use of statistical data in such a model can contribute to the improvement of the quality of data.

The paper concludes that the models are powerful when they are simple and clear even if this means some trade-off with accuracy. Models are accepted and understood better when they are formulated in a participatory manner.

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