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2015 - Southern Political Science Association Words: 179 words || 
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1. Wilford, Allan. "Ideology and Voter Turnout: How Partisan Effects of Increased Voter Turnout Vary Across the Left." Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, Hyatt Regency, New Orleans, Louisiana, Jan 15, 2015 <Not Available>. 2019-06-25 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p934151_index.html>
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Much has been made of the expected legislative gains that left parties would enjoy if voter turnout was increased, yet evidence of this effect is mixed. Over recent times we have also seen an ideological shift towards the center for many left parties as they attempt to capture a larger share of the vote. This paper explores how this move towards the center may have diluted prospective legislative gains for left parties as simulated voter turnout increases. To empirically investigate the effects of ideology on projected full voter turnout, we examine the case of the UK to assess how parties’ shift towards the center may have affected the Labour party’s capacity to accrue a larger share of the vote as voter turnout increases. Using multinomial probit models on survey data for six general elections, we find the further to the left a party is located the more potential it has to benefit from increases in voter turnout, conversely left parties that have migrated to the center seem to have a reduced capacity to increase their share of the vote.

2005 - Southern Political Science Association Pages: 19 pages || Words: 5983 words || 
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2. Martinez, Michael. "Does Turnout Decline Matter? Electoral Turnout and Partisan Choice in Britain" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, Inter-Continental Hotel, New Orleans, LA, Jan 06, 2005 <Not Available>. 2019-06-25 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p67002_index.html>
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: In recent years, the decline in election turnout seems to have abated in the United States, (McDonald and Popkin, APSR 2001) but it has been exacerbated in other advanced industrial democracies. For example, voter participation in Britain dropped from 75.3% in 1987 to 59.4% in 2001. While election officials, academics, and pundits in Britain and elsewhere agonize over the causes of the turnout decline, it is important to examine the political consequences of lower levels of turnout in these settings. In this paper, I simulate the effects of varying levels of turnout on partisan outcomes in the 2001 British election based on five different models. The results suggest that Labour would have won under almost any conceivable level of turnout (higher or lower), and the order of finish among the major parties would not have been affected. These findings raise further doubts about the conventional wisdom that higher turnout helps parties of the left.

2005 - American Political Science Association Pages: 19 pages || Words: 4969 words || 
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3. Belanger, P.. and Eagles, M. "Multilevel Contextual Influences on Voter Turnout Partisan Cross-Pressure and Voter Turnout in Erie County, New York" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC, Sep 01, 2005 <Not Available>. 2019-06-25 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p42124_index.html>
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: The propensity of individuals to take part in the electoral process has long been associated with a variety of contextual influences. Variations in the partisan composition of local environments have been among those factors that researchers have used to explain differences in the propensity to vote. This paper proposes to explore whether geographic variations in the homogeneity/heterogeneity of a variety of group environments contributes to an explanation of voter turnout in Erie County, New York. Using voter registration and census information, we have assembled a multilevel dataset comprised of the voting records and demographic characteristics of a sample of registered voters (N=137,012) for roughly the last decade (1996-2004). To this, we have added information on the political heterogeneity of their households (N=72,646). Finally, using data for the 985 electoral districts in Erie County, we distinguish individuals whose partisan registration conforms to that prevailing in their district and all others. Using multilevel methods (HLM) with this data, we can simultaneously estimate the independent and joint effects on turnout of a variety of the nested contexts in which individuals practice their politics. Our analysis uncovers strong evidence that the homogeneous households reinforce participatory behaviors independent of the effects of the larger context.
Supporting Publications:
Supporting Document

2005 - The Midwest Political Science Association Words: 39 words || 
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4. Sponaugle, Sarah. "Age, Education, and Voter Turnout: An Analysis of Youth Turnout and Organizational Efforts to Increase It" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the The Midwest Political Science Association, Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, Illinois, Apr 07, 2005 <Not Available>. 2019-06-25 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p85381_index.html>
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: This paper analyses youth voter participation by educational attainment as well as many of the current efforts to increase it. It demonstrates that many of the organizational efforts to increase youth participation are aimed at the wrong groups.

2002 - American Political Science Association Pages: 31 pages || Words: 7098 words || 
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5. Brown, Robert. and Bruce, John. "Party Competition and Turnout Revisited: Examining the Competition-Turnout Thesis in a Federal Setting" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston Marriott Copley Place, Sheraton Boston & Hynes Convention Center, Boston, Massachusetts, Aug 28, 2002 <Not Available>. 2019-06-25 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p66148_index.html>
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: The thesis positing a connection between party competition and electoral turnout has reached the status of conventional wisdom in American politics. While we do not argue with the theory itself, we suggest here that its empirical validation is based on a poor connection between measurement and theory. Specifically, previous studies examine the competition-turnout linkage by using state legislative competition measures to explain turnout in presidential and other national elections. We find a theory of state-level party competition driving turnout in national elections to be implausible, and see little reason to believe that competition in low visibility and low salience races would be the mechanism motivating citizens to vote in high salience and high visibility presidential elections. What is lacking for an appropriate examination of this relationship is a suitable measure of national party competition in the states. In previous work (Brown and Bruce, forthcoming) we developed such a measure, and use it here to examine variations in state turnout rates in presidential, senatorial, and U.S. House elections. Our analyses support the conventional wisdom, finding a generally robust relationship between national electoral party competition and national turnout rates across the states. Yet even in supporting the conventional wisdom, our analyses are instructive, as they represent a significant improvement in the link between measurement and theory in the competition-turnout literature.

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